Pa.-12's Special Election In May: Gut Check For Republican Wave

The race in that southwestern Pennsylvania district is in many ways similar to the special Senate election in Massachusetts in which Brown scored a major upset over the bumbling Democratic attorney general, Martha Coakley.

Like Brown, Burns is hoping to succeed a long-term Democrat; Murtha held the seat for 36 years.

Like Massachusetts, the 12th District has a strong union presence, and Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 2-to-1.

But key differences abound, not least of which is the Democrat ic candidate. Mark Critz, Murtha’s former district director, has not made the sort of blunders or displayed the tin ear that characterized the Coakley campaign.

The district is more rural and less liberal than Massachusetts, voting for John McCain in 2008. And while Big Labor is prominent, union members’ political attitudes are not easy to pigeonhole.

“They tend to be in favor of a worker’s right to organize and collectively bargain,” said Ed Yankovich, International District 2 vice president of the United Mine Workers of America, which has endorsed Critz. “However, they tend to be fiscally conservative and they hold other values. For example, a lot of our members believe in Second Amendment rights.”

Reflecting the district’s conservative tenor, Burns and Critz are pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, favor reducing the budget deficit and oppose cap-and-trade climate legislation.

Burns calls for repealing Obama-Care. Critz won’t go that far, but after a National Republican Congressional Committee ad suggested that he had supported the health care overhaul, he quickly aired his own ad highlighting his opposition.

This is the kind of district Republicans must win if they’re going to retake the House in November. That’s one reason the NRCC has spent at least $200,000 on the race. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reportedly spent $136,000 to keep the seat out of GOP hands.

A Daily Kos/R2000 weekend poll showed Burns beating Critz 46%-40%. Ten days earlier, Burns led Critz 44%-41%, according to Public Policy Polling.

While Critz is behind, he isn’t sinking the way Coakley did. Then again, Coakley started with a huge lead.

The broader trends seem to be helping Burns.

“The national climate favors Burns,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. “He can legitimately run as the outsider in the race at a time when people are very dissatisfied with Washington. Critz’s career is tied to a Washington congressman.”

Team Burns has stressed this theme.

“This race is a clear choice between Tim and his experience as a businessman and Mr. Critz, who is a career government bureaucrat who has never created a job,” said Tad Rupp, a spokesman for the Burns campaign.

Jobs are a major issue. Johnstown, the district’s largest metro area, has a 10.3% unemployment rate.

The Critz camp says Burns sold his pharmacy technology company, TechRx, to the detriment of the district.

“Tim Burns sold his company to get rich at the expense of jobs in western Pennsylvania and later abused a loophole that gave him a tax break for creating jobs overseas,” said Holly Shulman, a Critz campaign spokeswoman.

At issue is a tax law that lets corporations treat income earned overseas as “deferred tax liability.” Supporters say it helps U.S. business remain competitive with foreign firms that are not taxed on income earned abroad. Critics contend that it encourages American firms to keep that money overseas, creating jobs outside the U.S.

After selling TechRx in 2003, Burns served as an executive for six months with the buyer, NDCHealth. During that time, NDCHealth did make use of deferred tax liability.

Critz’s sound bite may play well in the union-heavy district. Burns has responded that he created 400 jobs with TechRx.

A National Campaign

Burns is also running ads attacking Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s liberal agenda, which is unpopular in the district.

By running against national Democrats, he’s pulling a page from the Brown playbook. In Massachusetts, running against Washington was key to Brown attracting support from independents and the Tea Party movement.

“A number of Tea Party groups have been watching the race with interest, just because of the questionable practices of Murtha, the self-proclaimed King of Pork,” said Robert Baehr, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Tea Party. “A lot of Tea Party members seem to be leaning toward Burns.”

Brown organized some local Tea Party events in 2009. Yet it’s not clear whether Tea Party support will be enough to push Burns to first place at the finish.

The special election falls on the same day as Pennsylvania’s primary. Democrats have competitive races for governor and the Senate.

“There is an opportunity here for higher Democrat turnout than there normally would be,” said the United Mine Workers’ Yankovich.

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