GOP pins hopes on N.Y. House race

For Republicans beleaguered by losses in two election cycles, hope has come in the form of New York state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R).

Tedisco, running to fill Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) old House seat, is becoming an obsession for national Republicans, who tout his chances for returning the district to the GOP. If he does, Republicans will call it the first sign their party is back on track after so many devastating losses.

But to win the March 31 election, Tedisco will have to navigate a district that has tilted increasingly leftward in recent years, and, in public at least, Republicans have been cautious about raising expectations. But strategists admit privately that the party is hungry for a big win, and a Tedisco victory would give it that.

In the fight to save Gillibrand’s old seat, Democrats have turned to Scott Murphy, a 39-year-old Harvard-educated venture capitalist who has been heavily involved in fundraising for Democratic causes.

But it’s the Republicans who have the most on the line. Besides across-the-board losses in the past two election cycles, the GOP only holds three of New York’s 29 congressional districts.

An early Tedisco poll showed him leading 50 percent to 29 over his Democratic rival, and, as if to underscore the importance of the race to the GOP’s collective psyche, both the Republican National Committee (RNC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have gotten involved.

The RNC, which is allowed to spend $84,000 in conjunction with one of its party’s candidates, aired an early television advertisement, while the NRCC went up with radio ads throughout the district on Wednesday.

The GOP is also sending its big guns to the district, including House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), who will campaign for Tedisco in March, and new RNC Chairman Michael Steele, who visited Tedisco for a photo-op and will hold a fundraiser for the candidate on March 4 in New York City.

Steele, especially, has said repeatedly that winning the seat is one of his top priorities.

“Chairman Steele is looking at the total political landscape, but right now this is a very important race,” said Mike Leavitt, the RNC adviser detailed to handle the race. “We have to be on the offense everywhere, and this is the first step under the new chairman.”

House Republicans have begun to pay attention as well. “I think everybody would feel, in this election, a little shot in the arm” if Tedisco wins, said Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), the party’s chief deputy whip who is also heading up recruiting at the NRCC. “I think people would say, ‘Hey, these guys really have their act together.’ ”

That’s not to say Democrats aren’t taking the race seriously. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has sent its press secretary, Ryan Rudominer, to the district to take over as chief flack for Murphy’s campaign, and Murphy will join Democratic Party leaders for a fundraiser in Washington.

The district has long been a GOP stronghold. But after 28 years in Republican hands, Gillibrand beat then-Rep. John Sweeney (R) in 2006 as the incumbent became embroiled in personal scandals.

One of just a handful of New York districts that backed President Bush in both 2000 and 2004, the area has been hard-hit by the economic woes that have plagued upstate New York. In 2008, President Obama beat Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the district 51 percent to 48.

Both parties have employed aggressive media strategies, slamming Tedisco and Murphy for sins both real and perceived.

Republicans have attacked Murphy for registering as a lobbyist in Missouri, for failing to vote in several elections earlier this decade and for what they say are lingering tax issues.

Democrats have labeled Tedisco the “Albany politician” for his role as the GOP leader in the state Assembly. (As part of his day job, Tedisco met Wednesday with Gov. David Paterson, D, whose appointment of Gillibrand opened the seat for Tedisco’s candidacy.)

Murphy also has criticized his opponent for refusing to take a stand on the economic stimulus package. “Rather than being a real leader and speaking straight to voters hurting in this tough economy, 26-year career Albany politician Jim Tedisco is playing the same old political games,” Murphy said of his rival.

Tedisco said that asking how he would vote is a “hypothetical.”

Both parties are also trying to keep expectations down, moves that belie the seat’s true — if psychological — importance.

“The district is a competitive one for both parties and it is in a region of the country that has been tough political terrain for Republicans over the past few cycles,” NRCC communications director Ken Spain said. “That being said, we think we have the right candidate in Jim Tedisco, whose upstate values stand in stark contrast to those of Wall Street executive-turned-lobbyist Scott Murphy.”…

… Neither Tedisco nor Murphy will change the partisan make-up of the House in any dramatic way, but whoever wins will be hailed as a harbinger. A Tedisco win will be spun as a sign of a GOP rising from the ashes; a Murphy win as a sign that the wreckage of the once-strong Empire State — and national — GOP is still smoldering.
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