Dead heat nationalizes New York special

The race to fill Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) former House seat is dead even, and with two weeks to go before the March 31 vote has become the major political battleground for both national parties.

It is the earliest of bellwethers for the 2010 election cycle and has taken on the same kind of significance as the three Democratic special election takeovers of 2008.

Both sides now say the race is within the margin of error, and neither is backing down from its ownership of the result.

Republicans feel they have little to lose by heaping emphasis on a district that has gone Democratic the last two cycles, especially with the party at a low-water mark in its overall House representation. Democrats continue to trumpet the 70,000-voter registration advantage the GOP has in the district and say Republicans should have had a far easier time regaining the seat.

In a Friday fundraising e-mail titled “Dead Heat in New York Special Election,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Executive Director Brian Wolff notes a recent independent poll showing Democrat Scott Murphy within four points.

“It’s a sprint to the finish in the big special election in New York’s 20th Congressional District,” Wolf writes.

GOP Assemblyman Jim Tedisco started the race with a 21-point lead, according to a Republican poll, but he was also far better known than his opponent, and his campaign insists it always expected the race to close within the margin of error.

Tedisco has taken steps over the last two days to separate himself from the national party, saying he will wrest control of his campaign’s message from the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The NRCC has rebuffed their candidate, saying it won’t change anything about the way it’s approaching the race.

Momentum is certainly on the Democratic side, but national Republicans believe they can drive up Murphy’s negatives enough in the next two weeks to thwart his rise in the polls.

“The NRCC has an obligation to hold Scott Murphy accountable for the past he is trying to hide as a Wall Street executive whose actions represent everything that has gone wrong with our economy,” said a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), Paul Lindsay. “We have no plans to shirk our responsibilities.”

Tedisco spokesman Joshua Fitzpatrick downplayed the role of the national parties.

“I know that Jim appreciates their assistance and support,” Fitzpatrick said. He then added that “this is not about political parties.”

Still, the increasing presence of national figures, especially on the Democratic side, belies that assumption.

Former President Bill Clinton and Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Michael Steele have both been to the district, with Steele jumping at the race from the outset and tying its result to his party’s resurgence.

Murphy has also gotten help from House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and big-time state Democratic figures Gov. David Paterson, Sen. Chuck Schumer and Gillibrand, who held the seat until she was appointed to the Senate earlier this year.

Gillibrand, who defeated a well-funded GOP candidate with 62 percent of the vote in November, cut an ad for Murphy that began running this week.

Tedisco has gotten help from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), and this week was on the receiving end of about $200,000 in advertising from the National Republican Trust PAC. Another GOP group, the Our Country Deserves Better PAC, has also run ads.

The NRCC has spent another $150,000 on the race, according to a report filed Friday, and has now plugged $340,000 into Tedisco’s candidacy. The RNC has sent about $180,000 toward the race.

The Democrats haven’t spent quite as heavily. The DCCC filed about $9,000 in media production costs Friday, upping its total for the race to $160,000. On top of that, the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) has spent $90,000 on mailers hitting Tedisco for not supporting tax cuts.

In many ways, the race is a replay of the presidential race in the district, with an older, well-regarded long-time legislator battling a young up-and-comer over economic issues.

New York Democratic consultant Joseph Mercurio said the race has become a referendum on President Obama’s stimulus package, even though Tedisco hasn’t quite toed the party line on the issue.

He wagered that the race still leans Republican, though.

“(Democrats) picked someone who was a neophyte and only picked him because he had money. Republicans were very unified at the beginning,” Mercurio said. “I think Republicans are making a tragic error on the economy. It’s not getting them votes.”

Democrats have hammered away on the stimulus bill, with Murphy fastening himself to President Obama’s programs and popularity, while Tedisco hasn’t taken a position on the final package.

Republicans have begun hitting Murphy for paying big bonuses to executives – a hot topic with so-called “golden parachutes” for corporate executives garnering negative media attention – as well as starting a business in India instead of the United States.

One GOP source insisted that Murphy’s negatives would begin to rise with the most recent NRCC ad and the National Trust PAC ad….

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