Special Forces

It’s impossible to deign too much from a race separated by just 25 votes. But whether Scott Murphy (D) or Jim Tedisco (R) ultimately emerges from the morass of attys and absentee ballots as the NY-20 victor, new polling suggests GOPers may be the ones with bragging rights.
— Stu Rothenberg argues the special election results show GOPers have hit bottom “and are starting to bounce back.” That appears to be the case, regardless of who ultimately emerges victorious. Our latest Diageo/Hotline poll shows GOPers narrowing the Cong. generic ballot deficit to 5%. This confirms a tightening that’s been seen in other surveys.
— But almost as important for GOPers, our polling shows that indies are now up for grabs. That bears out what we saw in NY-20, where, according to the last Siena poll, Tedisco actually led among indies. When was the last time GOPers were competitive among these voters? It’s been awhile. The party failed in ’06 and ’08 because its base was apathetic and because indies moved en masse to Dems. If the base reactivates, and if the party can continue to stay competitive among indies, ’10 could get interesting.

Click here to read the full story.