GOP tries to play 41-seat pickup

As the 2010 campaign cycle begins in earnest, the central question in the House of Representatives is how many seats will Republicans win?

Few political observers or elected officials doubt that an energized GOP has a tailwind. Despite two Democratic special election victories last week, election night 2009 suggested that the Republican base is excited and independents are disenchanted with Democrats.

Conventional wisdom on both sides holds that the 2010 midterm elections will produce gains for the GOP, which will enter the new year needing a 41-seat gain to win back the majority.

The most optimistic Republicans believe there is a real chance that the party can win back the House, a prospect that no one would have imagined just a few months ago. A more realistic estimate is somewhere in the double digits, though well below the magic number needed to capture the majority.

To get an idea of how the landscape is shaping up, consider the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s most recent outlook: There are 77 Democratic-held House seats listed as potentially competitive, with only 26 Republican-held seats in the same category.

Another promising sign for the GOP: Members who rarely face competitive races, like Reps. John Tanner (D-Tenn.), Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) and Vic Snyder (D-Ark.), are now facing the possibility of bruising reelection battles.

Here is POLITICO’s list of the eight forces that will drive the 2010 campaign and determine control of the House:

The Obama effect

By ramping up turnout among African-American and young voters, President Barack Obama helped sweep in at least a half-dozen House Democrats in 2008. Without the president on the ballot next year, they’re going to have a difficult time winning a second term.

One of them is Rep. Thomas Perriello (D-Va.), who represents a conservative-minded Southside Virginia district with a 23 percent African-American population and a college base at the University of Virginia. That combination allowed him to eke out a 727-vote victory in 2008, but he’ll have trouble replicating that performance without the same forces driving Democratic turnout.

Other Democratic freshmen who captured Republican-held seats on the heels of record African-American turnout include Reps. Bobby Bright of Alabama, Glenn Nye of Virginia, Steve Driehaus of Ohio and Larry Kissell of North Carolina. All of them rank high on the GOP target list for 2010, and Republicans are betting they won’t catch lightning in a bottle twice.

Tempest in a tea party

Despite Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman’s loss in the Nov. 3 upstate New York special election, conservative grass-roots activists are as energized as ever. These conservatives and tea party activists represent an X factor, an unpredictable and uncontrollable force that stands to punish Republicans as much as aid them.

Tea party organizers have already signaled that they have no qualms about taking on the GOP establishment and Republican candidates who stray from conservative principles. Yet they are also deeply opposed to the Obama administration and the Democratic agenda. It’s not yet entirely clear where this movement will focus all of its energy next year — or whether it will have a significant impact at the polls.

So far, most of the activity has taken place in GOP Senate primary campaigns, but there are a few Republican House primary races where conservative activists could also play a key role.

Similar primary fights, with varying degrees of intensity and competitiveness, are brewing in at least a dozen other House races.

The culture of corruption

Ethics issues played a significant role in the Democrats’ takeover of Congress in 2006, as Democrats took advantage of an electorate that was disgusted over myriad GOP scandals.

Yet now that they’re in power, House Democrats find themselves burdened with their own collection of embattled members who are facing serious questions about their ethics. At the top of the list is powerful House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel, whose finances are currently under investigation by the House ethics committee and who is already surfacing as a Republican campaign talking point.

If the ethical issues surrounding Rangel continue to linger into 2010, vulnerable Democrats are likely to feel the sting as Republicans zero in on Rangel and a handful of other Democrats and attempt to use them as examples of the excesses of Democratic rule.

In an early sign of the salience of the Rangel issue, newly elected Rep. Bill Owens of New York called on Rangel, the state delegation’s senior Democrat, to voluntarily step down as Ways and Means Committee chairman.

Health care

House Democrats are well aware that their votes on health care legislation will be among the most politically consequential in their careers, with Republicans poised to hammer vulnerable incumbents who support the contentious package.

While it’s possible that Democratic candidates will be rewarded for delivering substantive health care reform and Republicans punished for their opposition to the majority’s efforts, Democrats are fully aware that the issue carries considerable downside risk — witness the raucous town hall meetings over the August recess that telegraphed the anger and fear surrounding the issue.

For some swing-district Democrats, that visceral reaction back home was enough to turn them against even the White House.

The cash crunch

If Republicans hope to make a play for dozens of Democratic-held House seats, they’ll need a well-stocked campaign account to fund all their candidates. But right now, after spending money in two contentious off-year special elections, the National Republican Congressional Committee has a long way to go to raise enough money to compete across the national map.

The National Republican Congressional Committee ended September with just $4.3 million in the bank, less than one-third of the $14.7 million banked by its Democratic counterpart. So far this cycle, NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions hasn’t improved the fundraising fortunes of the committee — he’s raised $10 million less than his predecessor, Rep. Tom Cole, did at this same point in the past election cycle.

And the committee took an additional financial hit in the New York 23rd District special election, spending nearly $1 million on a race in which the GOP nominee, Dede Scozzafava, ended up quitting and then endorsing the Democratic candidate. Worse, the NRCC’s decision to support Scozzafava’s campaign has played a role in alienating conservative donors.

Climate change legislation

House Democrats were able to pass landmark cap-and-trade energy legislation in June with the support of a handful of members from rural, energy-producing districts where Republicans have traditionally held sway. The GOP, portraying the vote as an energy tax that will destroy jobs in those places, believes that vote will become a major liability.

The leading target on the energy front is Democratic Rep. Harry Teague, a freshman representing an oil-and-gas-producing district in southeastern New Mexico. He’s facing former Republican Rep. Steve Pearce, who said he entered the race precisely because of Teague’s vote on the energy bill.

Several recently elected Ohio Democrats will also be feeling heat over the issue. The Ohio Coal Association is already targeting Democrats John Boccieri and Zack Space for defeat, purchasing billboard space for ads in their districts that portray them as puppets of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Any seat that has a coal orientation — and there are more than you think — could see this issue play a significant role in determining the outcome.

The declaration of independents

Nov. 3 exit polling in the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races showed Republicans dominating among independent voters, a worrisome sign for Democrats who were swept into office over the past two elections with strong independent support.

According to CNN exit polling, Democrats held an 18-point advantage among independents in 2006. Two years later, Obama won independents by 8 points over John McCain in the presidential race.

This year, however, independents took a hard turn to the right. In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie won over 58 percent of independents, while in Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell captured 65 percent of independents.

It’s all about the economy

There’s one key number — the unemployment rate — that may dictate the course of the 2010 campaign.

Across the board, polling indicates that voters have deep anxieties about the state of the economy, and the party that is best able to articulate a vision for recovery will reap the rewards.

That makes perceptions about the success or failure of Obama’s stimulus package a critical component of the campaign — Republicans are already framing it as wasteful and ineffective.

So far, polling data suggest that voters do not view it as a home run. In a revealing episode, Florida Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, who is engaged in a Senate primary, recently sought to distance himself from his early embrace of the package.

Yet in two highly competitive New York special elections this year, Democrats who touted their support for the president’s economic recovery policies won in part by arguing that they were necessary for revitalizing the economy.

 
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