Democratic retirements: trend or coincidence?
| And then there were two — retiring Democratic incumbents, that is.
Rep. John Tanner of Tennessee, a co-founder of the conservative Blue Dog Coalition, announced last night that he will not run for a 12th term in Congress. He becomes the second House Democrat to announce his resignation, joining Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore, who announced last week. Is this now a trend of Democrats facing tough elections bailing out in what could be a bad political year for the majority party? Republicans hope so. The National Republican Congressional Committee asks, “Who’s next?” on its website, and Red State points out that Tanner voted for the stimulus and faces a tougher than usual election. Tanner ran unopposed in 2008 and hasn’t had a difficult campaign since winning office in 1988, Politico says. The Cook Political Report rates his seat as “leans Democratic.” Political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia says it’s not a trend until you get to 10 or 12 retirements. In a string of tweets on the day Moore announced his retirement, Sabato said: The rush to be first to spot a ‘trend’ leads analysts astray. Rep. Dennis Moore(D-KS) retires, and media jump to declare a season of D byes. Shouldn’t we wait until D retirements–not counting those running for higher office–reach, say, 10 or 12? As of today, the total is ONE. That’s right, Moore’s the only D in a vulnerable district who is plain retiring rather than bidding up. But silly things were said all day. The news media and analysts used to wait for the magic ‘3’ before declaring a trend–even though 3 isn’t a trend. Now just 1 is magic. 10:10 PM Nov 23rd from web Maybe it will happen. But House Dems are doing everything possible to make sure it won’t. How about a little patience, fellow analysts? Something else to consider: At this time in 2007, there were 23 retiring Republicans — 17 in the House and six in the Senate — as the Washington Post reported on Nov. 27, 2007. |