GOP Poll Shows Potential Opportunity Against Bishop
| The last time GOPers held Rep. Tim Bishop’s (D-NY) Long Island seat, the party was firmly in the majority. Now, a new poll taken for his GOP foe shows Bishop with some weak initial numbers.
The McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) poll, taken for businessman Randy Altschuler (R), shows Bishop leading by a wide 46% to 26% margin. It’s a big gap, but the fact that a 4-term incumbent who won in ’08 with 58% is polling below 50% could be an indication of trouble ahead. Altschuler is barely known in the district, and if allowed to define himself, he has nowhere to go but up. Bishop’s eastern Long Island district is narrowly split between Dems and GOPers; Pres. Obama won the district by just 4 points in ’08, and Pres. Bush won by 2K votes out of 300K cast in ’04. Now, GOPers lead a generic ballot by a 38%-34% margin, according to the poll, and Obama has a weak 47% approval rating (44% disapprove). Altschuler, on the other hand, has some built-in arguments to make. When given a choice between a GOPer to place a check on the Obama admin and a Dem to help pass the WH’s agenda, voters choose the GOPer by a 52%-34% margin. Those are similar to numbers in other districts around the country, and it’s going to be a key part of the GOP’s argument next year. GOPers are excited about Altschuler’s prospects; he’s already made the first level of the NRCC’s Young Guns program. And Dems are taking him seriously as a candidate. The DCCC has already previewed attacks it will make against him, accusing him of shipping jobs overseas. Bishop doesn’t yet rank among the most vulnerable members facing re-election next year, but his is a district the GOP needs to win if they are going to begin contemplating a really big wave in ’10. Waves are made bigger by good candidates, and if Altschuler catches on, Bishop could face a fight. The poll, conducted for Altschuler’s campaign, surveyed 300 LVs — McLaughlin’s standard sample size — between 11/18-19. The margin of error was +/- 5.7%. |