Tanner's departure alarms Dems

Tennessee Rep. John Tanner’s decision to step down at the end of his term has Democrats worried that a trickle of retirements will turn into a flood.

Democrats won their majority in 2006 — and built on it in 2008 — in large part by running conservative Democrats in Republican-leaning districts. But with Rep. Dennis Moore (D-Kan.) and Tanner now heading for the exits, there’s growing concern that the party’s strategy may be unraveling just in time for 2010.

“It’s the beginning of an avalanche on our side,” one Democratic strategist said. “Morale is bad, and we’re seeing guys in their 50s and 60s, who have some time left, who can make some money and have a phase two in their careers.”

Tanner is a godfather of sorts for conservative Democrats, and his announcement comes at a perilous moment for his party. The Democrats’ poll numbers are in decline. Health care reform is stuck in the Senate. And President Barack Obama isn’t the political patron he was a year ago. On top of that, the Democrats no longer have an unpopular Republican president to run against.

Republicans have seen this movie before — and they like being in the audience this time. After losing the House in 2006, the GOP saw 26 of its members call it quits before 2008, and it lost 12 of those open seats. They’re hoping that the Democrats are in for the same treatment now.

“John Tanner’s retirement is not only a blow to Democrats’ chances of holding onto the seat, but it is a symbolic one, as well,” said Ken Spain, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “A well-funded member of the original Blue Dog coalition is throwing in the towel because he sees the writing on the wall.”

The Republicans need to pick up 41 seats to recapture the majority — the same deficit they faced in 1994 when they swept to power. But that’s a tall task even in the most favorable environment. In the past two electoral landslides, Democrats won 30 seats in 2006, followed by a 24-seat pickup two years later.

While members and strategists are waiting for other shoes to drop — Vic Snyder? Ike Skelton? John Spratt? — Democrats say it’s too early to portray the 63-year-old Tanner as some kind of canary in the coal mine.

“It was not a surprise,” said Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who chairs the Democrats’ campaign arm in the House. “I’ve known for some time about the decision and appreciate having a heads-up.”

Van Hollen said other Democratic incumbents could follow Tanner, but he said he doesn’t anticipate a large wave of retirements because most of his colleagues want to see what they can accomplish with Obama.

“In any cycle, you’re going to have individuals who had distinguished careers, like Tanner and Moore, who decide to do something else,” Van Hollen said. “It’s possible there could be a few more of those. … What we want to avoid is the mass retirements we saw in 1994, and there’s no indication we’re facing anything like that.”

But if senior Democrats in competitive districts follow Tanner’s lead as the political environment erodes, it will create Republican opportunities in unexpected places. Even Van Hollen acknowledged that “if there were a whole lot more [retirements] from very tough districts, that would obviously be concerning.”

Tanner’s departure is also worrisome because he’s come to symbolize the battle-tested House Democrat in a rural, conservative district. A founder of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition, Tanner has always been able to navigate through rough political waters since his first election in 1988.

But this year looked like it would mark the end of Tanner’s easy winning streak after a little-known Republican farmer, Stephen Fincher, came out of nowhere to raise more than $300,000, putting Tanner on the Democratic watch list. He has also grown tired of the long commute back home on weekends and wants to be closer to his family after one of his newborn grandchildren suffered a serious heart condition.

“Tanner’s an isolated case,” said John Rowley, the congressman’s media consultant. “He’s cut his own swath; he had the opportunity to be a U.S. senator, an opportunity to become the governor, and deferred.”

“You almost always have a handful of retirements at this point,” Rowley said. “So many of these Democrats have walked through the desert between 1995 and 2006, so being in the majority has energized a lot of them.”

Spratt, Skelton and Snyder are often mentioned as other Democrats who could retire next year because all three face the prospect of a tough race, but these rumors don’t always hold true.

“The reports of my demise have been grossly exaggerated,” Spratt said.

“I would only see this as a serious problem for Democrats if the open-seat takeover possibilities hit double digits. Right now, it’s at five,” said David Wasserman, an analyst with The Cook Political Report. “Another five and, all of a sudden, we can begin to talk seriously about Republicans picking up more than 30 seats.”

Republicans have their own tough-to-protect seats. Reps. Mike Castle of Delaware, Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania and Mark Kirk of Illinois are all leaving to pursue higher office, and Obama carried each of their districts last November.

“So far, retirements look like a wash to me,” said Steve Murphy, a Democratic campaign strategist. “But this certainly is a year where we would not want to see a lot of Democrats retiring who represent Republican-leaning districts.”

But Tanner’s departure clearly set off a few alarm bells.

Blue Dog Co-Chairwoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) said she’s checked in with some of the more senior members of her caucus in the wake of Tanner’s announcement.

“My hope is that this isn’t a domino effect,” she said.

Moderate-to-conservative Democrats have bristled at some of their leaders’ legislative priorities after being forced to stomach tough votes on climate change and health care reform.

“The leadership has to be very attentive to the breadth of diversity across the caucus, including rural reaches of the country that, at this point in time, may be somewhat skeptical about whether Democrats are turning things in a positive direction,” said North Dakota Rep. Earl Pomeroy, who’s already been on the air this year with campaign ads to insulate himself for next fall.

“If the upcoming year is one where we talk to ourselves and reinforce ourselves, we will have a disastrous election,” he continued. “We need to be very attentive to what the electorate is telling us and address it in the year ahead.”

Tanner leaves with almost $1.4 million in his campaign account, plenty of money to repel a Republican challenge. But others, like Snyder, don’t have similarly robust war chests. August served as a wake-up call for everyone, and some senior members don’t want to make the phone calls to raise the money or make the rounds at retirement homes to pick up votes. Given the political tenor of the health care debate, this might be the year to leave, experts suggest.

“This is the kind of year that makes them [think they] can pad the retirement account a little bit and spend more time with [their] family,” said a Democratic strategist. “It’s shaping up to be a miserable year. … I think absolutely you’re seeing the early part of the wave with Dennis Moore and Tanner.”

“This will not be the last retirement,” said California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who heads the Republicans’ recruitment efforts in the House and helped find Tanner’s opponent. “It will come down to the decision by members about whether they want to retire or lose.”
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