GOP Crows While Dems Fight '94 Comparisons

GOPers are sounding just a little more excited heading into the holidays, while Dems have begun actively pushing back against comparisons to the disastrous ’94 election cycle.

In dueling messages released today, NRCC chair Pete Sessions gloated about the improved position his party finds itself in, while DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen stressed that his members are prepared for a difficult election season.

“The writing on the wall is clear – Congressional Democrats today are left with a mandate for defeat in 2010,” Sessions wrote in a memo to GOP candidates and members. He pointed to Dem retirements, an expanded roster of candidates competing against incumbent Dems and national poll numbers that show voters opposed to several of the party’s key initiatives.

“Democrats are facing a list of daunting obstacles to the big-government agenda they seek to impose on middle-class families. Thanks to a shifting political environment, they face mounting retirements, failed recruitments, an expanded playing field of seats to defend, and a divided and demoralized base. Meanwhile, a vibrant and unified Republican Party with an energized base is prepared for 2010,” Sessions wrote.

Meanwhile, at a gathering with reporters the same day, Van Hollen was the first to bring up the disastrous ’94 elections, when Dems lost control of Congress for the first time in 40 years.

“We think [this year] is a very different situation than in 1994,” Van Hollen said, calling GOP predictions “hyperbole.” “We told our members that they need to fasten their seatbelts.”

It is that warning, to both younger members and veteran incumbents, as well as a pledge to stay on offense wherever the party can, that Van Hollen believes will stanch the bleeding and save Dem-held seats.

And, Van Hollen said, the 4 Dem lawmakers who have announced they will step down in ’10 represent a mere fraction of the average number of retirements. Van Hollen said Dems “absolutely do not expect a large surge” in retirements, he said.

Few can argue, just a year after the ’08 cycle in which GOPers took a drubbing, that the party is in better position today. Some party strategists have quietly started whispering about the prospects of taking over Congress, though the NRCC stays away from that discussion.

“While many challenges lie ahead, we stand on the precipice of a unique opportunity – with the support of the American people – to make significant, if not historic, gains in the U.S. House of Representatives,” Sessions wrote.

“The pieces are in place for a momentous change next year, but not without the help and dedication of our Conference, candidates, and staff.”

But the party has a ways to go before it can compete seriously in enough districts to consider “historic” gains. Van Hollen pointed out that, assuming the NRCC targets 40 districts next year, the NRCC has an average of $100K to spend in each district, while the DCCC has much about 5 times the amount of money available after debt is accounted for.

“There is no doubt we have a lot of competitive races,” Van Hollen admitted. With the unemployment rate at 10%, he previewed an argument on the economy Dems are likely to make next year, but one that could prove a tough sell: “We haven’t turned the corner yet, but we’ve stopped the free fall.”
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