Tougher Races Prompt New Arkansas Ratings
The 2008 elections in Arkansas underscored the tough times Republicans faced that year in their national campaign for House seats. The state’s three Democratic House incumbents all represent conservative-leaning districts that favored Republican John McCain for president, but all ran without Republican opponents in their own races.
GOP strategists see hopes for a comeback in the 2010 midterm elections, though, and they are focusing strongly on Democratic incumbents in McCain districts such as Marion Berry in Arkansas’ 1st District and Vic Snyder in Arkansas’ 2nd. While both of these veteran lawmakers maintain advantages in their races, the stepped-up GOP efforts to challenge them have prompted CQ Politics to change its ratings on the races — to Leans Democratic (from Likely Democratic) in Snyder’s race and to Likely Democratic (from Safe Democratic) in Berry’s district.
The front-runner for the Republican nomination to challenge Snyder in the 2nd District is former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the campaign arm of House Republicans, has been touting Griffin as one of their top recruits for 2010.
Griffin previously worked in the administration of President George W. Bush as an aide to political adviser Karl Rove and also has been employed by the Republican National Committee. He has attracted a number of former White House officials to raise money for his campaign this fall, helping him build on the $130,000 in donations he reported receiving by Sept. 30, the end of the third-quarter finance period.
Snyder had less than $8,000 in cash on hand as of that date. Though this is a continuation of a career-long pledge not to raise money until each election year has begun, he has drawn a more serious opponent than usual and will have to make up for lost time quickly.
Snyder’s cash disadvantage — and the fact that polling by a Democratic firm in November pegged the race as a statistical dead heat — are a couple of big things for officials at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to worry about. Yet Democrats suggest that Griffin’s ties to Bush and Rove will be more impressive to Republican loyalists than to the November general electorate.
The NRCC, meanwhile, has targeted Snyder in ads for his votes for the climate change bill that contains a controversial “cap and trade” program to limit industrial emissions and for the House version of legislation to overhaul the health care system.
In the 1st District, Republican recruit Rick Crawford — an Army veteran and farm radio broadcaster — is less heralded than is Griffin. That is a key reason why Democrat Berry is still regarded by CQ Politics as a stronger favorite for re-election than colleague Snyder.
But national Republican strategists sense an opportunity in the eastern Arkansas district, especially considering that McCain took 59 percent of the vote there in 2008. And the NRCC hasn’t been shy about fanning rumors that the 67-year-old incumbent might retire, giving them a strong open-seat takeover opportunity, even though Berry has given no indication that he will not be running for re-election.
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