Ritter stays, Bennet goes, and other predictions for 2010
It’s prediction time, so why not hear from a for-real New Year’s baby with a “proven” track record?
I was born on New Year’s Day in the year The Beatles released Sgt. Pepper’s, Time magazine named Lyndon Baines Johnson its person of the year (for the second time), and there were only 100 million phones in the United States.
So in addition to the fortuity of my birth date, I’ve got a little perspective.
My Baker’s Dozen.
1. Gov. Bill Ritter will win re-election in his race against former Congressman Scott McInnis.
This is a prediction, not an endorsement (though if I had to vote today, Ritter would be my pick).
Ritter’s win will counter the national trend, where we will see a lot of Republicans staging victories over Democrats who would have won handily before last summer. Because Democrats pushed this country too far left too quickly, the Grand Old Party stands to make big gains. And though conservatives feel the country has gone too far left, progressives feel like Obama and Co. aren’t liberal enough. So don’t look for the huge Democratic turnouts we saw in 2008.
But the Colorado governor’s race won’t be influenced as much by that dynamic. It won’t because the state’s budget problems are significantly different from the nation’s, and so local issues matter far more. Ritter’s ideas for budget fixes make more sense to independents that those coming from the right.
Further, Colorado has a decades-long history of giving its incumbent governors a second run. Ritter is popular. And he’s a demonstrable champion of green energy in a state that would be badly hurt by warming.
McInnis started poorly with a needless flameout in what would have been a friendly radio interview. Then he declined to debate Republican opponents. What would be his base still pines for Josh Penry. It took the threat of a primary challenge from Tom Tancredo to get McInnis more focused on the issues, though he remains vague on then specifics.
All of this has created an unfavorable impression of McInnis as someone who feels entitled to the office, but who isn’t interested in doing the hard work to prove he’s ready; the independents who will otherwise go big for the GOP in 2010 won’t view McInnis as a reasonable pick.
2. The Ritter-appointed Sen. Michael Bennet will lose to former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton.
Here is where the national discontent with and among Democrats will play its role. It won’t be so much that Norton wins as Bennet loses. (I’ve heard several conservatives grumble that Norton is a lightweight.) Though Bennet is sharp and could make a fine senator if allowed to grow into the role, he’s in the wrong party at the wrong time, and he missed his chance with the health-care reform bill to display principled leadership.
Progressives aren’t excited about Bennet. Republicans are hugely animated to vote against him and statewide active GOP voter registration is surging ahead. Independents are lopsidedly leaning toward the right.
(This too, is not an endorsement. If I had to vote today, I wouldn’t in this race.)
3. Democrats will lose their Senate supermajority.
(See above.)
4. State Rep. Cory Gardner will defeat Congresswoman Betsy Markey.
Again the national mood shift is a factor, but Democratic growth in the district will counter it. Yet unlike Norton, Gardner is a strong Republican leader in Colorado who understands the issues in his district; he’ll be perceived by independents as refreshingly knowledgeable and principled compared to Markey, who seems interested in votes that keep her in office. Progressives won’t like Markey’s running with the Blue Dogs, and Republicans will work overtime to get out the vote for Gardner.
(Again, I’m not endorsing this far out, just predicting. But I’m guessing I’ll argue for Gardner when the time comes.)
5. Congressman Ed Perlmutter will win re-election.
This Democrat, though not in a safe seat due to the mood shift, will buck the trend. Perlmutter serves his district with all he’s got. He constantly gets out and mixes with constituents to hear their thoughts and concerns. He fully reads these complex bills that keep getting rushed through and talks intelligently about them. Because of this, I’m guessing enough independents will vote his way to keep him in place.
Contender Ryan Frazier will be a fresh alternative, and he was smart to leave the senate race and take on Perlmutter instead. He’ll win even by losing for the extra exposure the race will give the young up-and-comer. (Bonus prediction: Headlines will read “Down Goes Frazier!”)
6. Suffering big losses, Democrats will nonetheless retain control of the House.
It’s normal for the party of the president to lose some House seats in the mid term. Folks aren’t happy with the way Congress handled health-care reform, or cap-and-trade, for that matter. A significant number of voters don’t think the $787 billion so-called stimulus was effective, and unemployment will remain too high next year. Obama’s popularity dropped awfully fast and is either at or below 50 percent.
But this New Year’s Baby doubts the party will lose 40 seats. That’s a LOT of seats. Yes, nearly 50 representatives are up for re-election in districts that sided with McCain, but one reason the debates over health care went on as long as they did was exactly because representatives in those seats did all they could to look as conservative as possible. No doubt, several will have looked reasonable enough to independents to remain in office.
7. The losses Democrats do incur will compel them to take the gavel away from Nancy Pelosi. (And what a blessing that will be.)
8. Despite attempts to muzzle them, the Heenes will profit from the Balloon Boy hoax. (And how irritating that will be.)
9. It will rain at U2’s Denver concert.
Yes, this time it’s at Invesco Field at Mile High, not the otherworldly Red Rocks Amphitheater the then up-and-coming band used in 1983 to film and record while making its “Under a Blood Red Sky” album. But, like that 1983 performance, the band will be playing outdoors in Denver in June. But even if it does rain, it won’t matter. Rain obviously didn’t stop them then. Rolling Stone magazine called the epic performance one of the 50 moments that changed Rock and Roll.
10. Colorado’s General Assembly will legitimize medical-marijuana dispensaries.
11. Ritter will allow the legislation to become law without his signature.
12. Sarah Palin will form an exploratory committee to consider a run for the Republican presidential primaries.
And Republicans better hope she doesn’t like what she sees.
13. Iran’s hardliner government will collapse to populist pressure.
The Iranians have shown extraordinary commitment to reform in the face of brutal power. Here’s hoping they win out, that they institute a more democratic institution and someday enjoy freedoms as varied as we take advantage of here in America – even if it means enduring politicians such as ours.
Happy New Year!
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