GOP: We'll take back the House

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia, one of 10 leaders who attended a strategy session in Annapolis, Md., this week, said the party will attack Democrats relentlessly for the stimulus, health care and cap-and-trade bills. Internally, Republicans call it the “80-20 strategy,” which, loosely interpreted, means spending 80 percent of the time whacking Democrats and the remainder talking up their own ideas.

Cantor said he is more confident than ever this gives Republicans an authentic chance of netting the 40 seats they need, especially after reviewing data provided by five GOP pollsters during the leadership retreat. It showed what other public surveys reveal: widespread unease with Democratic policies.

Cantor conceded that the public is far from thrilled with the GOP — in fact, the party’s image is worse than the Democrats’ — but he argues that Republicans will benefit most from the public loathing of Washington. “I don’t think that we Republicans can even remember what it feels like to have wind at our back,” Cantor said. “We can win back the majority.”

Is this really possible? Independent analysts say it’s doubtful — but not implausible, for the very reasons Cantor cites. More likely, Republicans will trim a big chunk of the majority, perhaps by two dozen or more, but fall short of the 40-seat pickup they’d need to reclaim the majority, those analysts say.

What follows is the Republicans’ case for how and why they can pull it off. (The accompanying story explains why Democrats think otherwise.)

Democrats are in the dumps

Republicans aren’t as delusional as some think: They know they aren’t going to win a popularity contest with the public right now. But Republicans don’t think they have to, as long as the public remains down on Democratic rule.

“It is in the mind-set of the public right now: Washington’s out of control,” Cantor said. “They do not have the economic security in their life yet. The 10 months’ time [until the election] is not enough for people to regain their sense of security, no matter where this unemployment rate goes.”

A newly released CNN/Opinion Research poll shows a majority of Americans disapprove of the president’s handing of every domestic issue surveyed — health care policy, the economy, taxes, unemployment and the budget deficit, some by double-digit margins.

Cantor contends that President Barack Obama’s agenda is so unpopular that he offers this advice to the president: “Stay the course.”

Cantor’s chief deputy whip, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), said the administration’s suggestion that the stimulus would keep unemployment under 8 percent is “going to be the equivalent of [former President] George [W.] Bush landing on the [USS Abraham] Lincoln and saying, ‘Mission accomplished.’”

A wave is building

It’s not often that a party picks up 40 seats on the power of its ideas — at least not in contemporary elections.

The 1994 election, which saw the GOP nab 54 seats, was a reaction to President Bill Clinton and a Congress long dominated by Democrats. The 2006 election, which saw Democrats win back control, was largely a rejection of Bush-era Republicans. But signs of a similar wave — the size and power of which are unknowable — are out there. Poll after poll is showing Democratic incumbents are “upside-down” — more unpopular than they are popular.

“There is a sense that the growth in spending and what’s going on here is out of control,” Cantor said.

McCarthy laughed off the Democrats’ talking point that they won’t be taken by surprise; they know they’re in a toxic environment.

“You can be prepared for the tidal wave,” McCarthy said, “but it knocks me on my butt — it goes over the top of me.”

Cantor contends that Republican Scott Brown is surging in next week’s special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy partly because of “the fright connected with adding to the one-party rule.” So he says the GOP will offer “a check and a balance on unfettered power.” By making that modest claim, he’s admitting that voters are skeptical of the GOP’s ability to lead after the debacles of the Bush years.

It’s a numbers game, folks

Republicans admit they will need some breaks — a lot of them. They hope Democratic retirements — now at 10 seats — inch up to at least 15. Republicans hope they can win 70 percent of those seats, then defeat 10 percent to 15 percent of incumbents. The spin that the party gives to its prospects: 48 Democrats now sit in districts won by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008. Nearly every one of these races has at least one credible Republican or will soon get one. In addition, according to National Republican Campaign Committee data, 32 Democrats won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2008. Of 10 Democratic open seats, Republicans will be on offense in at least eight. In 13 Republican open seats, Democrats have fielded strong challengers in only two. Remember: This is the Cantor-GOP spin, but it’s not that far from reality.

Size matters

Republican leaders recognize that their party is embarrassingly white, but they estimate that one-quarter of its top 100 candidates will be minorities. Cantor concedes the lack of diversity in his party today is a big concern. Van Tran, a California State Assembly member who left Vietnam at age 10 in a C-130 military cargo plane, is among the minority recruits they think can win. He is running against Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez.

Another bright recruit is Hispanic state Rep. Jaime Herrera, running to fill the seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Brian Baird in Washington. Cantor is taking steps to ensure more diversity: This week, he endorsed Ryan Frazier, an African-American city councilman running against Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.), even though he’s facing a competitive primary against a former aide to McCain’s presidential campaign.

Recruiters have also focused on small-business owners and doctors who can attack Obama’s agenda from personal experience. Among the other candidates they are proud of lining up: Jim Gibbons, a former Iowa State University wrestling coach, and Stephen Fincher, a gospel-singing cotton farmer from Frog Jump, Tenn.

Smile … a little

It won’t be an entirely nasty campaign — at least 20 percent of it. So after Labor Day, the GOP is leaning toward releasing a document — “a 21st-century blueprint,” Cantor calls it — that would echo the party’s successful “Contract With America” of 1994.

Cantor says it would start with jobs, then go on to promising a level playing field for investments. Aides say it would be more general than the bill-by-bill roster of the “Contract,” instead focusing on vaguer principles. Tax cuts will be included, too.

It’s not clear how they will handle health care in the document, but Cantor says the party is not so dense as to call for a complete repeal of anything Obama signs into law. They don’t want to defend taking away the popular parts, such as portability.

“We never said that we don’t want to effect reform,” Cantor said. “We’ve said we’ve got ways that we believe you can bring down health care costs.”
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