Schauer is latest Dem to trail in early poll

January 18, 2010

Another poll; another Democratic incumbent down big.

Just a few days after Reps. Vic Snyder (D-Ark.) and Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio) saw themselves trailing by 17 points apiece in polling conducted for a Democratic-leaning blog, a Republican poll shows freshman Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.) down by nine.

The National Research Inc. poll, conducted for former Rep. Tim Walberg’s (R-Mich.) campaign, has Walberg leading Schauer 46-37, and 50-40 with “leaners.”

Another, lesser-known Republican, Brian Rooney, trails Schauer 39-31 in the poll. Rooney is the brother of another freshman congressman, Florida’s Tom Rooney (R).

President Obama is at 48 percent approval in the district, with 48 percent disapproving.

The poll was conducted last week among 300 likely voters. The margin of error is 5.7 percent.

In addition to Schauer, Driehaus and Snyder (who announced his retirement last week), Reps. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.), Dina Titus (D-Nev.) and Frank Kratovil (D-Md.) have also seen some troubling polls recently.

While the evidence is so far anecdotal, there has yet to be some really good counter-evidence — i.e. good early polling for vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.) has come the closest, leading a Public Policy Polling (D) survey against a generic Republican 53-39 last week.
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