Economy Alarm: Layoffs Increase, Economists Prepare for a Bumpy Road

Layoffs Increase, Economists Prepare for a Bumpy Road

Jobless Recovery Continues With No End in Sight

Democrats Claim the Stimulus ‘Saved or Created’ Up to 2 Million Jobs Last Year and Promise to Reach 3.5 Million Jobs By the End of 2010

“The Obama administration, offering evidence that its much-maligned efforts to spur economic recovery have begun to take hold, said Tuesday that the $787-billion stimulus program saved or created 1.5 million to 2 million jobs last year… [Chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors Christina Romer] expressed confidence that the package of tax cuts and government spending — the largest of its kind in U.S. history — ultimately would fulfill President Obama’s promise of boosting employment by 3.5 million jobs by the end of this year.”  (Don Lee and Jim Tankersley, “White House credits stimulus,” The Los Angeles Times, 1/13/2010)

Credibility Crash: Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise as Forecasts Paint a Grim Picture for the Future

The number of newly-laid off workers seeking jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, as the economy recovers at a slow and uneven pace.

Layoffs have slowed and the economy began to grow in last year’s third quarter, but companies are reluctant to hire new workers. The unemployment rate is 10 percent and many economists expect it to increase in the coming months.

The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 482,000. Wall Street economists expected a small drop, according to Thomson Reuters.

The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, rose for the first time since August, to 448,250.

The weekly claims figure is volatile and it can take time for trends to emerge. A Labor Department analyst said that much of the increase last week was due to administrative backlogs leftover from the winter holidays in the state agencies that process the claims.

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Still, the economy is not consistently generating net increases in jobs. The Labor Department said earlier this month that employers cut 85,000 jobs in December, after adding only 4,000 in November. November’s increase was the first in nearly two years.

Many economists say the four week average of claims will need to fall to below 425,000 to signal that the economy is close to generating net job gains.

Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to claim regular benefits dropped slightly to just under 4.6 million. The continuing claims data lags initial claims by a week.

But the so-called continuing claims do not include millions of people who have used up the regular 26 weeks of benefits customarily provided by states and are now receiving extended benefits for up to 73 additional weeks, paid for by the federal government.

More than 5.9 million are receiving extended benefits in the week ending Jan. 2, the latest data available, an increase of more than 600,000 from the previous week. The data for emergency benefits lags initial claims by two weeks.

The increasing number of people claiming extended unemployment insurance indicates that even as layoffs are declining, hiring hasn’t picked up. That leaves people out of work for longer and longer periods of time.

Among the states, California saw the largest increase in claims, with 16,160. Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania and Georgia saw the next largest increases. The state data lags the initial claims data by a week. (Christopher S. Rugaber, “Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rise,” Associated Press, 1/21/2010)

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