Environment, Lack of Challenger Boosts Jenkins
| Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R) path to re-election in northeastern Kansas’ 2nd district has gotten easier due to a political environment that favors the GOP and the fact that her top opponent decided to get out of the race.
National Democrats’ much-touted candidate, state Sen. Laura Kelly (D), dropped her bid late in 2009, leaving the party empty handed. Although Democratic sources say state Sen. Tom Holland (D), a former Kelly backer, is still considering a bid, the party has no chance of making the race competitive unless he gets into the race. CQ Politics has therefore changed the rating of this race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican because Democrats lack a top-flight recruit. Although Jenkins unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2008, a good year for Democrats, it’s unlikely that they can make a go at this seat when the national mood has turned against them. Former Rep. Nancy Boyda (D), who shocked both parties when she won this seat in 2006, lost two years later to Jenkins. Not only will Republicans have the national wind at their backs, but Kansas’ conservative leaning and the GOP top of the ticket also boosts Jenkins’ chances. Republicans are expected to run strong race on the statewide level in the gubernatorial and Senate races with minimal opposition from Democrats. |