Latest departure renews retirement worries
Rep. Marion Berry’s retirement announcement Monday shouldn’t come as a surprise—political insiders in both parties have been buzzing about it for some time.
Nevertheless, the Arkansas Democrat’s decision is a punch in the gut since it’s likely to refocus attention on the issue of Democratic House retirements—probably the main determinant in whether or not the GOP has a shot at winning back the House.
Whether retirement’s like Berry’s were already in the works or not, the impression that there are more shoes to drop—and in similarly tough districts—will only add to the air of panic stirred up by Scott Brown’s upset Senate victory in Massachusetts last week.
Brown’s victory was bookended by Berry and the retirement of Arkansas Democratic colleague Vic Snyder less than two weeks before. And in just the few days between Brown’s win and news of Berry’s departure, Republicans have notched significant recruiting victories by convincing top candidates to run in two of the most hostile states to the GOP over the past two election cycles—New York and Pennsylvania.
The National Republican Congressional Committee’s response to the Berry retirement sought to perpetuate the idea that 2010 is beginning to spiral out of control for the Democratic majority.
“The message coming out of the Massachusetts special election is clear: No Democrat is safe,” said NRCC spokesman Ken Spain. In the aftermath of Scott Brown’s victory this past week, it has become evident to Democrats that to run for reelection in this toxic political environment is to ensure defeat at the ballot box in November.”
Still, even assuming moderate-to-heavy Democratic House losses in 2010, at the moment a GOP takeover looks unlikely. Why? Republicans need 40 seats to return to power and they can’t hit that magic number without an even greater surge in Democratic retirements.
Here’s a useful comparison: In 1994, the year Republicans took over Congress, 31 House Democrats announced their retirement. This year, the number so far is just 12.
Top Democratic officials have insisted there aren’t many more retirements to come—probably no more than a handful, if that. But that was before Brown’s win in Massachusetts and its unsettling effects.
Certainly House Democrats will not be able to withstand many more retirements like Berry—his seat won’t be easy to hold since he represents a district that delivered 59 percent to John McCain in 2008 and just 38 percent to Barack Obama.
Worse, in Republican-leaning places like Berry’s 1st District, national Democrats will be forced to make some tough resource allocation decisions. The question the party will have to grapple with is whether it’s worth sinking money into a Democratic-held, but uphill open seat race when there are dozens of other contests where the return on investment is likely to be higher.
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