Top political handicappers downgrade Dem 2010 prospects
| The Cook Political Report downgraded the prospects of 15 House Democrats in its ratings Monday, with five seats moving to “toss up” status—a category reserved for the most endangered seats. The Rothenberg Political Report listed 28 seats as moving toward the GOP.
“The last six months, since we began writing about impending Democratic problems in August, has been like watching a car wreck in slow motion,” wrote political analyst Charlie Cook. “We keep watching, anticipating that one of the drivers will swerve or hit the brakes, but they never do. The White House and Democratic Congressional leaders have done nothing to halt the impending collision.” “We can no longer dismiss the possibility of a Republican wave so large that Democrats could lose their House majority,” the Rothenberg report wrote in its update. “We stress, however, that we currently expect Republicans to fall short of the 40 seats they would need.” Both lists are heavy on junior Democrats who are not as well-positioned as veteran incumbents to weather a Republican storm in November. Of the five members newly-added to the Cook Political Report’s toss up list, three were elected in 2008: Reps. Mark Schauer (MI-07); Dina Titus (NV-03); and Glenn Nye (VA-02). The two others, Reps. Baron Hill (IN-09) and Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), were elected in the Class of 2006. Cook issued a new forecast that predicted a GOP gain of 25-35 House seats in the House. Rothenberg reported “we are raising our target for GOP gains to 24 to 28 seats, with higher Republican gains possible.” |