A Wave Is Building, but How Big Will It Be?
The universe of House seats that Republicans could conceivably flip into their column is expanding and the number of seats that Democrats would wrest from the GOP is dwindling.
To accurately reflect the current political environment, CQ Politics has decided to change the ratings of House races in 27 districts. All but four of the changes upgrade the prospects for Republicans — another sign of the challenge facing Democrats in November and the fact that the party’s hold on the House has grown less secure.
Of the 49 House races that CQ Politics now envisions as the most competitive, Democrats are the defending party in 42 districts and Republicans are the defending party in just seven.
Eighteen races are rated as “Tossups,” meaning that they have no clear favorite. CQ Politics moved three Democratic-held districts into this group: Michigan’s 7th, held by freshman Rep. Mark Schauer ; Mississippi’s 1st, represented by Rep. Travis W. Childers ; and New Hampshire’s 2nd, which Rep. Paul W. Hodes is giving up to run for Senate.
The only Republican-held seat in this grouping is the Illinois district of Rep. Mark Steven Kirk , who is running for Senate. CQ Politics originally gave Democrats a slight edge to win the seat but now sees no clear favorite between businessman Bob Dold (R) and Dan Seals (D), who lost to Kirk in 2006 and 2008.
CQ Politics moved seven Democratic-held districts into the highly competitive “Leans Democratic” category from the mildly competitive “Likely Democratic” category. They include the districts of Reps. Earl Pomeroy (N.D.), John M. Spratt Jr. (S.C.), Leonard L. Boswell (Iowa) and Baron P. Hill (Ind.)
Four Democratic-held districts were moved out of the uncompetitive “Safe Democratic” category and are now rated as “Likely Democratic.” They are the districts of Reps. Ben Chandler (Ky.), Bill Delahunt (Mass.), John Salazar (Colo.) and Joe Donnelly (Ind.). Delahunt is viewed as a likely candidate to announce his retirement in coming weeks.
CQ Politics moved three districts from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican” including the district of retiring Rep. Bart Gordon (R-Tenn.). The Kansas district of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D) also is rated as Likely Republican.
Four House Republicans were added to the “Safe Republican” category: Leonard Lance (N.J.); Mike D. Rogers (Ala.); Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.); and Judy Biggert (Ill.). All were elected or re-elected in 2008 with 53 percent of the vote or less, though none faces a threatening challenge in this election.
Though the lion’s share of changes benefits the Republicans, the party still has a long way to go toward making the net gain of 40 seats to win a majority. Though the political environment today favors Republicans, there are still nearly nine months before the general election; only Illinois has held primaries and only four states have concluded their candidate qualifying period. Democratic committees and their vulnerable members have not yet spent the millions of dollars they accumulated in 2009 to prepare to draw sharp contrasts with GOP opponents.
A few ratings changes benefit Democrats. The most notable one is in Delaware’s at-large district, where Republicans have struggled to field a top-tier candidates against former Lt. Gov. John Carney, the likely Democratic nominee who has been campaigning for 10 months. The ratings also upgrade the re-election prospects for Rep. Scott Murphy (N.Y.), where a GOP challenge has been slow to materialize, and Reps. Melissa Bean (Ill.) and Peter A. DeFazio (Ore.), who were once in the crosshairs of GOP strategists but now seem safe.
Alabama’s 3rd — Likely Republican to Safe Republican
California’s 11th — Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
California’s 44th — Leans Republican to Likely Republican
Colorado’s 3rd — Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic
Illinois’ 10th — Leans Democratic to Tossup
Illinois’ 13th — Likely Republican to Safe Republican
Indiana’s 2nd — Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic
Indiana’s 9th — Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
Kentucky’s 6th — Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic
Iowa’s 3rd — Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
Kansas’ 3rd — Tossup to Likely Republican
Massachusetts’ 10th — Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic
Michigan’s 7th — Leans Democratic to Tossup
Michigan’s 11th — Likely Republican to Safe Republican
Mississippi’s 1st — Leans Democratic to Tossup
New Hampshire’s 2nd — Leans Democratic to Tossup
New Jersey’s 7th — Likely Republican to Safe Republican
North Dakota’s AL — Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
Pennsylvania’s 3rd — Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
Pennsylvania’s 10th — Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
South Carolina’s 5th — Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic
Tennessee’s 6th — Leans Republican to Likely Republican
Moved Benefiting Democrats:
Delaware’s At-Large — Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
Illinois’ 8th — Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
New York’s 20th — Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
Oregon’s 4th — Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
Click here to read the full story.