Florida: Kosmas More Vulnerable; Rooney Safe Bet for Re-Election

We are moving the race in the 24th district, where freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D) is seeking re-election, from Leans Democratic to Tossup. Meanwhile, the race in the 16th district, represented by freshman Rep. Tom Rooney (R), is moving from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.

The ratings change in Kosmas’ race comes in the wake of her vote last week in support of controversial health care overhaul legislation. Kosmas was one of the few Democrats in competitive districts who voted “no” on the bill in November when it first came up for a vote, then switched to cast a “yes” vote this time around. GOP operatives are already calling that vote a political death sentence for the freshman lawmaker, who represents a district that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won by 2 points in the 2008 presidential election. The National Republican Congressional Committee has named Kosmas to it’s “Flip Flop Five” list of vote-switchers and is already attacking her for caving to pressure from her party leadership and President Barack Obama .

As she looks to the fight ahead, Kosmas can take heart in the fact that she’ll be well funded. As of Dec. 31 she reported over $830,000 in cash on hand and she’ll have the vast resources of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — which had more than three times more cash than it’s GOP counterpart at the end of February — to fall back on.

Kosmas is facing a primary challenge from Winter Springs Mayor Paul Partyka but that battle isn’t expected to be anywhere near as competitive as the multi-candidate primary taking place on the GOP side in the 24th district.

State Rep. Sandy Adams, Winter Park County Commissioner Karen Diebel, veteran Tom Garcia, building contractor Ed Dedelow and a half-dozen other Republican candidates are seeking the nomination, but GOP leaders aren’t thrilled with any of them. In mid-February the National Republican Congressional Committeepersuaded Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, to run. Miller is a political outsider with a sizeable personal fortune and he’s already shown he isn’t afraid to open it for his campaign. He aired radio and TV ads urging Kosmas not to support the health care bill in the days leading up to the vote.

The DCCC is already working to soften up Miller, who is clearly the candidate they fear the most, considering the amount of time and effort they have spent on attacking him since his name first surfaced as a candidate. DCCC operatives have tried to dent Miller’s business credentials from his work with Ruth’s Chris and the committee has also distributed a release criticizing Miller for not being tough enough on drunk driving in comments he made in a restaurant trade magazine in 2001.

It also appears that the DCCC will have a little more time to devote to Kosmas’s race after the committee lost their highly touted recruit against Rooney last week.

Chris Craft (D), a St. Lucie County commissioner, sent an e-mail to supporters on March 26 informing them he was ending his campaign so that he could concentrate on his current duties at a time of economic trouble. Craft’s entry into the contest in August was the key reason CQ Politics originally changed the race rating from Safe Republican to Likely Republican last fall.

Craft never proved to be a strong fundraiser during his months on the campaign trail. He took in just $42,000 in the final three months of 2009, less than the $61,000 he raised in the previous quarter.Craft’s exit leaves Democrats without an announced challenger to Rooney, who easily beat scandal tarred one-term Rep. Tim Mahoney (D) in 2008. The congressman had $460,000 in his campaign account as the election year began.
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