The View From 4,833 Miles Away

Mainland pundits continue to see Democrats splitting the special election vote, thereby allowing Republican City Councilman Charles Djou to dance into the winner’s circle.

The latest speculation comes from the Hotline’s Tim Sahd, “who assesses which House seats are most likely to switch party control this year.”

The Hotline is the must-read political gossip blog of the respected National Journal.
Monday it reported the Hawaii CD-1 race as one of 25 races most likely to flip.

Here’s what it says:

“Everyone knows the key for a GOP win here: Former Rep. Ed Case (D) and state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D) split the Dem vote in the all-party May 22 special election, allowing Honolulu Councilor Charles Djou (R) to sneak through and win. Polling from earlier this year suggests Djou has a long way to go, but he’s already working to improve his name ID by airing a strong bio TV ad. Hanabusa and Case also have ads on the air, but things aren’t likely to stay positive for long, as they aren’t exactly the best of friends. If things get ugly, the door will open for Djou, and an improbable win for a Republican in a seat that gave Obama 70 percent.”

Honolulu Star-Bulletin reporting quotes Hawaii senior Sen. Dan Inouye, chairman of the senate appropriations committee, as saying the race against Case “is personal” and he is steering the district towards Hanabusa. Inouye says his own polling shows Djou losing.