Alan Mollohan fights for his political life

State Sen. Mike Oliverio (D) has painted Mollohan as a creature of Washington — the Congressman has held the 1st district since 1982 — and used past ethical questions to suggest that the incumbent’s time has run out.

The race has gotten very nasty over its final weeks with Oliverio referring to Mollohan as “one of the most corrupt members of Congress” and the incumbent retorting that his opponent is “lying” and “spreading right-wing smears”. And, that’s just the television ads!

Mollohan, not surprisingly, has enjoyed a financial edge in the race. As of April 21, Mollohan had raised $799,000 with $191,000 in the bank while Oliverio had collected $320,000 with $70,000 left on hand.

Neutral Democratic observers acknowledge that the race is a genuine toss up. Republican strategists are quietly rooting for Mollohan to survive, believing that lingering ethical questions and the GOP nature of the district will deliver them a victory. (Republicans have a six-way primary of their own in the district.)

A Mollohan loss — coming so quickly after Bennett’s defeat — would add to the growing sense that it’s hard out there for an incumbent (of either party) and set the stage for an exciting night on May 18 when Sens. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) are on the primary ballot.

Poll close in West Virginia at 7:30 pm.

2. Conservative outside groups have begun flooding the television and radio airwaves in southwestern Pennsylvania in advance of next week’s 12th district special election.

The American Action Network, a center-right advocacy organization founded by former Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman, is running radio ads that cast businessman Tim Burns (R) as the right man to deal with the nation’s economic problems because of his background in business, as opposed to politics.

“Tim Burns is a real job maker,” says the ad’s narrator. “He came up the hard way, knows the value of a dollar. As a local businessman, Tim created 400 jobs right here. Tim Burns knows how to grow our economy. He’s done it before.”

The radio buy is costing American Action Network $26,000, according to a source familiar with it.

Another conservative independent group, Americans for Prosperity, is up with television ads in the district that hit former congressional aide Mark Critz (D) on his position on energy policy.

“Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi are pushing a huge energy tax in their global warming bill that will drive up gas prices and utility bills and cost Pennsylvania jobs,” says the ad’s narrator. “But Mark Critz won’t sign the no climate tax pledge to oppose these taxes and protect Pennsylvania jobs.” The narrator goes on to urge Critz to “oppose the Obama/Pelosi hidden energy tax”.

The AFP ad is running in the Johnstown market only.

With the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Monday pulling out of this month’s special election in Hawaii, the Pennsylvania race has taken on added significance as a gauge of the current political environment.

To that end, the National Republican Congressional Committee has now spent $959,000 in independent expenditures in the race, according to the most recent filings to the Federal Election Commission. The DCCC has spent $646,000 on the seat to date.

3. A new poll conducted for the NRCC shows an unlikely target emerging in Florida.

The previously unreleased poll, which was obtained by The Fix, shows Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) trailing funeral home director Steve Southerland 52 percent to 37 percent despite the fact that less than one in five voters recognize Southerland’s name.

The numbers are particularly noteworthy considering that Boyd has barely registered on GOP target lists to date. A GOP source says that the race has taken on new prominence since the Tarrance Group poll was conducted in mid-April.

Boyd’s numbers should be a warning sign to other southern Democrats sitting in swing districts who have so far escaped much electoral scrutiny. Just 26 percent of voters say Boyd deserves to be reelected, and his approval rating is just 34 percent (compared to 48 percent disapproval).

Boyd doesn’t seem to have pleased anybody with his health care vote; even though he voted for the bill, his approval among Democrats is just 45 percent. That could be why he’s already running ads for his August primary against underfunded state Sen. Al Lawson (D). (The district is 22 percent black, and so is Lawson.)

Boyd’s Panhandle district is one of more than four dozen currently held by a Democrat that went for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008; McCain beat President Obama 54 percent to 45 percent.

4. Wisconsin (and national) Democratic officials are coalescing behind state Sen. Julie Lassa (D) as their nominee to run for the seat of Rep. David Obey (D), who announced last week that he will retire after serving 20 terms in the House.

Lassa, who was elected to the state Assembly in 1998 and the state Senate in a 2003 special election, officially kicked off her bid yesterday.

“There is consensus” on Lassa, according to a senior Wisconsin Democratic Party official. “It was done quickly because we understand the importance of keeping this district,” the official added. (President Obama won the district by 14 points in 2008 but the Democratic presidential nominees in 2004 and 2000 carried the seat far more narrowly.)

A bevy of state Democratic legislators has been eyeing the seat in the wake of Obey’s announcement, but the state party is eager to sidestep a primary battle. The frontrunner for the GOP nod is Ashland County District Attorney Sean Duffy (R), a former “Real World” star who had already announced his bid against Obey. Duffy raised more than $500,000 for the race as of the end of March.

Duffy spokesperson Matt Seaholm cast Lassa as a party-line Democrat who voted to raise taxes in the last legislative session, but nonetheless welcomed her entry into the race. “I know she’s well respected in Madison, and I think she’s going to be formidable,” Seaholm said.

5. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is becoming an issue in the final days of the GOP Senate primary between ophthalmologist Rand Paul and Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

At a Monday night debate, Paul equivocated when asked whether he would be voting for McConnell as party leader if elected to the chamber this fall.

“I’d have to know who the opponent is and make a decision at that time,” Paul said. Meanwhile, Grayson — who officially received McConnell’s support last week but has long been viewed as the Senator’s preferred nominee — said he’d “proudly” vote for the minority leader should he get elected.

Paul’s comments came mere hours after McConnell refused to say that nominating Paul would weaken the party’s chances of holding the seat being vacated by Sen. Jim Bunning (R) in the fall.

McConnell, in an interview with the ABC/Washington Post show “Topline”, said that a unity rally was already planned for the Saturday after next week’s primary, adding: “I think there’s an excellent chance that Kentucky will keep this seat in Republican hands and we’re going to be there to support the winner.”

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