How Blanche Lincoln won

1. Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s Democratic runoff victory Tuesday night proved that conventional wisdom is often wrong.

Lincoln’s political obituary was written in the days after she narrowly bested Lt. Gov. Bill Halter — 44.5 percent to 42.5 percent — in the May 18 primary under the theory that voters not already with the incumbent wouldn’t wind up with her on June 8.

What happened?

Lincoln always had an electoral base — as was made evident in the primary — in the 1st and 2nd districts. She had represented the 1st district from 1992 to 1996 and had strong ties in and around Little Rock (Pulaski County), which comprises the heart of the 2nd. Halter, by contrast had no obvious geographic base and his strength among liberals nationally didn’t translate all that well in Arkansas where liberals do not make up a particularly large portion of the vote even in a Democratic primary.

Lincoln also had a (not so secret) weapon on her side in former President — and, more importantly, former Arkansas Governor — Bill Clinton. Clinton appeared in Little Rock in late May and appeared in television ads for her in the final week of the runoff. Even the Halter forces acknowledged that Clinton was, without question, the most popular political figure in the state. Lincoln’s margins — particularly in Pulaski — seem to be a direct result of Clinton’s support.

Finally, Lincoln stuck to her message — I am one of you and will fight for you — from the start of her advertising in the primary to the end of her television ads in the runoff. Her final, direct-to-camera ad was powerful stuff that tapped into the genuineness voters are looking for in their politicians. “I’d rather lose this election by fighting for what is right than win it by turning my back on Arkansas,” she said at the ad’s close.

Lincoln’s victory provides — yet more — evidence that candidates and campaigns matter even with a strong anti-incumbent wind blowing nationally. Whether she can overcome the conservative tilt of the Razorback State in the general election against Rep. John Boozman, however, is an entirely different question.

2. Lost amid South Carolina state Rep. Nikki Haley’s (R) dominating performance in the Palmetto State governor’s race — she took 49 percent of the vote in a four-way field but faces a June 22 runoff against Rep. Gresham Barrett — is the fact that the nastiness of the race’s final week produced extremely high turnout.

Approximately 420,000 votes were cast in the South Carolina primary on Tuesday night, the most in a non-presidential Republican primary in the Palmetto State since 1996.

Even the the 2008 GOP presidential primary — won by Arizona Sen. John McCain — in which 445,000 people voted was not a significant increase over the number of people who cast ballots last night. (The largest turnout ever in a Republican primary? The 2000 fight between McCain and George W. Bush where 570,000 people voted.)

Those numbers suggest that the allegations of infidelity directed toward Haley in the final week of the campaign — not to mention the ethnic slur about Haley that came from Republican state Sen. Jake Knotts — had the opposite effect of most negative campaigning: it made people MORE likely to vote and MORE likely to vote for Haley.

Given that dynamic, a runoff victory seems a near-certainty for Haley even though Barrett and his team pledged to seriously contest the race. Even the Republican Governors Association seemed ready to move on; “The voters of South Carolina made a clear choice in Nikki Haley, notwithstanding the possibility of a runoff,” said RGA executive director Nick Ayers. “The outcome is all but certain.”

3. In the establishment versus insurgent fight in Republican House primaries, Tuesday’s results provided a mixed bag.

Republicans got their top choice candidates in all of their targeted primary races in New Jersey and Virginia. (In the Commonwealth, auto dealer Scott Rigell and state Sen. Robert Hurt beat back tea party activists to win the nominations in the 2nd and 5th districts, respectively.)

But there was plenty of fodder for establishment consternation as well.

South Carolina Rep. Bob Inglis, who has alienated conservatives on several counts including his vote for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), took less than 28 percent of the vote and will by a heavy underdog against Spartanburg County Solicitor Trey Gowdy in a runoff on June 22.

National GOP favorites also lost in several other races, including three members of the NRCC Young Guns program who fell to non-Young Guns candidates in their primaries. Chief among them was former Iowa State wrestling coach Jim Gibbons who lost to state Sen. Brad Zaun by double digits in the 3rd district primary. South Dakota state Rep. Blake Curd finished third in his primary.

4. Republicans have a strong chance of taking the seat of retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D-Ark.) in November, according to a new GOP poll of the race.

The poll, which was conducted for GOP nominee Rick Crawford’s campaign and obtained by The Fix, shows Crawford leading former Berry chief of staff Chad Causey, who won Tuesday’s runoff, 40 percent 34 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

Republican expectations in the district were tempered when, after Berry’s retirement, Republicans failed to recruit a big name into the race. But Crawford, an agricultural broadcaster, appears to be benefiting from a bad environment for Democrats — particularly in the South.

Crawford is still an unknown quantity who will need to raise more money. (He had $183,000 in the bank as of mid-May.) But Republicans lead the generic ballot 47 percent to 36 percent in the poll, and 54 percent of voters disapprove of President Obama, including 46 percent who “strongly disapprove.”

The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies among 300 likely voters and has a 5.7 percent margin of error. It was done shortly after Crawford won his primary three weeks ago.

5. Businessman Tim James (R) is demanding a recount in the Alabama gubernatorial primary after state elections officials announced yesterday that he came up short of making the runoff.

James came in third in last week’s primary, trailing former state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R) and state Rep. Robert Bentley (R). James was initially 208 votes behind Bentley but after provisional ballots were counted yesterday, he trailed by only 167.

Alabama law does not require an automatic runoff in close races, and state Attorney General Troy King (R) issued an opinion yesterday confirming that any candidate seeking a recount must request it and pay for it out of his own pocket.

James said that’s something he’s willing to do; in a statement Tuesday night he called the race a “virtual tie” and noted that there’s “never been a vote this close in a Republican gubernatorial primary.” He also penned a message to supporters asking them for contributions, because “if it’s up to us to pay for a recount, it will be costly.”

Bentley, meanwhile, is declaring that he has earned a spot in the runoff.

“Many hard-fought campaigns are close, but there can be only one winner. I won and am in the run-off,” he wrote in a statement on his campaign website.

Click here to read the full story.