National Environment Puts Boucher, Chandler at Greater Risk

Two of the latest examples are Democratic Reps. Rick Boucher (Va.) and Ben Chandler (Ky.), who are being targeted by national Republicans and face credible challengers in their respective conservative-leaning, coal country districts.

To reflect the competitive nature of the battles both Democrats are expected to have this fall, CQPolitics is changing the race ratings in both Virginia’s 9th district and Kentucky’s 6th district from Likely Democratic to the more competitive category of Leans Democratic.

The rating change in Chandler’s district comes just days after his opponent, attorney Andy Barr, released a new poll that showed him trailing the Congressman by just 7 points. Chandler took 45 percent while Barr, a first time candidate who isn’t well known outside of establishment GOP circles, received 38 percent. Chandler’s camp has disputed those numbers and insists that the Congressman is up by double digits, but Barr’s poll has Republicans excited and it is already being used to gin up fundraising support.

Over the summer months the fundraising battle will be important. Chandler, the grandson of a former Kentucky governor and senator, boasts more than $1.5 million in his campaign account.

But the good news for Republicans is that Barr won’t have to match Chandler dollar for dollar. The Lexington-based 6th district, which went for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by 12 points in the 2008 presidential race, is entirely contained in one fairly cheap media market, which will help Barr maximize his advertising time.

In terms of messaging, it’s a good bet that Republicans will spend their time reminding the many voters in the district with connections to the energy industry about Chandler’s vote to support the House cap-and-trade bill. Republicans and even some Democratic operatives have called that vote an indefensible one in a state where coal is king.

The movement of Boucher, who has represented his southwestern Virginia district for 28 years, isn’t due to any specific poll but more the result of a general drift toward a more competitive race.

State Del. Morgan Griffith (R), who has served in the state Legislature for over 15 years, is a solid recruit who is expected to give Boucher his toughest challenge in years. The current Majority Leader of the Virginia House of Delegates should prove to be a solid fundraiser. He brought in over $100,000 in two weeks in March before his first federal filing deadline. But Griffith’s next fundraising report (due to be filed by July 15) will be highly anticipated, since both parties will be watching to see if he’s made any substantial headway in closing the huge financial disparity that he faced in early May. At that point, Griffith showed just $110,000 in his campaign account, compared to Boucher’s more than $1,9 million warchest.

Still, whether it’s a result of House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) or some other influence, the national party seems particularly committed to moving the 9th district into the GOP column this fall. It took just two months of campaigning before Griffith was named to the highest rung of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Young Guns” campaign finance and infrastructure program.

As with Chandler, GOP officials have hammered Boucher for supporting a climate change bill in a district with so many ties to the coal industry.

But with a nearly $2 million campaign account and a total of 35 years of being elected by district residents Boucher won’t lack the resources to fight back this fall.

Meanwhile Democrats have already attacked Griffith for running in the 9th district while living in the 6th district.

Griffith has said that the district boundaries will expand after post-census redistricting and that he expects to be living in the 9th district when that happens.

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