Republicans' enthusiasm about 2010 midterms at historic high

1. New data from Gallup on Monday suggests that Republican voters are significantly more enthusiastic about the 2010 midterm elections than in years past, further evidence of an energized GOP base heading into the fall campaign.

Nearly six in 10 Republicans described themselves as “more enthusiastic” about 2010 than previous midterm elections, while 44 percent of Democrats said the same. The previous “enthusiasm high” in Gallup data was in 2006, when 50 percent of Democrats described themselves as more enthusiastic than in past, non-presidential election years (40 percent of Republicans said the same). Democrats picked up 30 seats and the House majority that year.

While the Gallup numbers are gathered from four national polls conducted throughout the year, the latest survey to be included — from earlier this month — paints an even rosier picture for the GOP than the overall data.

In the June poll, 53 percent of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic about voting in this election than they had been in previous midterms, while 39 percent said they were less enthusiastic; just 35 percent of Democrats called themselves more enthusiastic in2010, while 56 percent said they were less so.

“The enthusiasm question has generally provided an accurate indication of which party will fare better in the midterm elections,” writes Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones. “Since 1994, the party that has had a relative advantage on the enthusiasm measure has gained congressional seats in that midterm election year.”

Put simply: Midterm elections tend to be low turnout affairs, making the two party bases — the most reliable of voters — even more important. When one party’s base is, to borrow a phrase, fired up and ready to go and the others isn’t, major change can happen. (See President Obama winning 365 electoral votes, including former GOP strongholds like Indiana and North Carolina, in 2008.)

There are still more than four months for Democratic voters to find their electoral mojo, and entities like the White House and the Democratic National Committee will be devoting significant time and resources to try and engineer that enthusiasm.

But, at least today, an enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans exists — and that’s good news for the GOP heading into the fall.

2. Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck has surged to a 16-point lead over former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton in the Colorado Republican Senate primary, according to a new Denver Post poll.

Buck takes 53 percent to 37 percent for Norton among likely Republican primary voters. It’s the first poll showing Buck with a significant lead over Norton, although surveys in recent weeks had shown him narrowing the gap over the establishment favorite.

Buck’s rise, as we have written, has been aided by several factors. He has won the backing of national conservatives including Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), and Colorado’s multi-step caucus process has allowed him to increase his profile among party activists over the past several months.

Norton, by contrast, has enjoyed the support of Colorado and national Republicans but has struggled to match the grassroots intensity for Buck.

It’s not all anti-establishment fever in the Rocky Mountain State, however. The Denver Post poll shows appointed Sen. Michael Bennet leading former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff 53 percent to 36 percent among likely Democratic primary voters.

The Colorado primary is set for Aug. 10.

3.Utah Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson is just over 50 percent, but carries a 19-point lead into his primary race Tuesday against former schoolteacher Claudia Wright, according to a new poll in the Beehive State.

Matheson leads Wright 52 percent to 33 percent in the poll, which was conducted by Dan Jones and Associates for the Deseret News.

Matheson has been spending heavily on the race after voting against the Democratic-led House health-care bill. Wright advanced to a primary against Matheson by taking 45 percent of the vote in last month’s state party convention. (To avoid a primary, Matheson needed to win 60 percent at the convention.)

The poll should be of some comfort to Matheson, but the low-turnout nature of the primary is cause for plenty of uncertainty. And, the poll showed that more than half of primary voters thought Matheson “isn’t liberal enough” — potential trouble for the incumbent if only the activist base of the party votes on Tuesday.

Matheson is a heavy favorite, but like many other incumbents in this topsy-turvy election cycle, he’ll likely come away with a less-than-convincing win. If he somehow loses, GOP nominee and former state Rep. Morgan Philpot becomes the favorite to win in November.

4. Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I) has a double-digit edge over former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in the state’s Senate race, according to a new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll.

Crist led Rubio 42 percent to 31 percent, while former Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) received just 14 percent of the vote – his worst showing in a poll since Crist switched parties.

Much of Crist’s post-switch political conversion has been aimed at endearing himself to Democrats. Neutral observers now agree that his general election calculus is likely to rely on winning over Democrats not swayed by Meek. Crist’s ideal scenario would be for controversial billionaire businessman Jeff Greene to win the primary — polling shows him in a statistical dead heat with Meek — as it would make it easier for the governor to convince Democrats to cross party lines.

In the governor’s race, former health-care executive Rick Scott is leading state Attorney General Bill McCollum, whom the Florida Chamber has endorsed, by a 35 percent to 30 percent margin in the Republican primary.

5. The Republican National Committee took in nearly $6.5 million during May, a haul that’s roughly on par with the $6.6 million its Democratic counterpart took in during the same period.

The RNC also had more than $12.5 million cash-on-hand as of the end of May — about $2 million less than the DNC.

On the House side, the National Republican Congressional Committee raised $5.4 million in May, trumping the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by $300,000. The DCCC still had a massive cash-on-hand edge, however, ending last month with $28.6 million in the bank while the NRCC showed $12 million.

May fundraising reports for the Senate were not available at press time.

The DNC has been vocal about its plans to spend upwards of $50 million in 2010 — money that primarily will be aimed at finding and turning out voters who came out to the polls for the first time in 2008 to cast a ballot for Obama.

While the RNC has been less vocal about its plans heading into November, the committee remains in relatively strong shape in relation to the DNC–despite being without any levers of power in Washington (and with the GOP committee having withstood a variety of chaos over the last year).

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