Republicans cautiously upbeat about November

Pete Sessions recognizes there are no certainties in politics.

After all, it took him three tries to win a seat in Congress representing Dallas and two to gain the chairmanship of the House GOP campaign committee.

That may explain why, despite the efforts of some fellow GOP leaders to raise expectations for November’s midterm election, Sessions is generally more cautious.

“We can win back the majority,” he said in an interview. But he indicated that he preferred to talk more about why supposed Democratic failures have made a Republican triumph possible than about whether it will happen.

At a time Democrats are hailing their economic-stimulus, health-care and financial-reform legislation, Sessions calls those measures “a complete economic disaster” that will cost the country 10 million jobs.

“They have taken something and made it worse,” he said. “And that is what they will be judged on.”

Sessions recognizes his challenge. If Republicans fail to recapture a House majority, he acknowledged in April, it will mean “I did not fulfill my mission statement.”

Analysts agree. “At the end of the day, he’s going to be judged by the bottom line,” said independent House handicapper Stu Rothenberg.

To do so, Republicans have to gain 39 Democratic seats. Prime targets include Texas Reps. Chet Edwards of Waco and Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio. Even there, Sessions stops short of predicting victory. “A chicken doesn’t crow until the eggs hatch,” he says.

Sessions’ caution also may reflect his difficulties since party leaders tapped him 18 months ago to chair the Republican National Congressional Committee.

House Democrats have outraised the GOP and have banked more than twice as much campaign cash. And Republicans have fared poorly in special elections that often foreshadow future electoral success.

After losing a closely watched contest in a largely rural Pennsylvania district formerly represented by the late Democrat John Murtha, Sessions did something unusual. He took responsibility.

“We didn’t recognize that the Democrats would run a candidate who would be against cap and trade, the health-care bill and who was also pro-gun and pro-life,” he said. But Democrats regained the House in 2006 in part with candidates who fit local views, rather than a national platform, and GOP leaders tried a similar strategy last November by backing a moderate Republican in a special election in northern New York. That strategy blew up when a conservative third-party candidate split the GOP vote and helped elect a Democrat.

Sessions said the GOP still plans to aim its efforts this fall against President Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, even though that strategy failed in Pennsylvania.

“The agenda that Mrs. Pelosi places on the floor and has been successful at twisting arms to be successful is the issue,” he said. “That’s what we’ll focus on.”

As for the Democrats’ financial advantage, Sessions said, “When you have the speaker and all the committee chairmen and more members, you’re going to have more money.

“In 2006, we had far more money and did not do well. They’re going to need a lot of money, and there are some tides that not even more money can beat.”

Sessions conceded that even if the GOP regains a House majority, its margin probably will be small, but he disputed suggestions that that would be a prescription for governmental gridlock.

“I think it’s a prescription for processes to change and that you’ll see us receive a huge number of Democratic votes” for an effort to roll back Obama’s agenda, including portions of his landmark health-care-reform bill.

Rather than just oppose Obama’s proposals, Sessions added, “We will work with President Obama just as we did with President (Bill) Clinton.”

Does Sessions believe Obama would be more accommodating to Republican ideas than he has been so far?

“We’ll find out,” he replied.

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