Down Shifting…Expectations

THE FACTS…

Average Loss For A Midterm Election is 16 House Seats: “The post-World War II historical average for a midterm election in a president’s first term is a loss for his party of 16 House seats.” (Charlie Cook, “A Split Decision In 2010 Races?,” National Journal, 06/06/09)

THE SPIN… 

December 2008: Democrats Predict A Gain Of House Seats In 2010, Similar To The Election Of 1934: “‘We’re actually talking more about 1934,’ Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) said.  That’s when Democrats added to their majorities for the third straight election, two years after the election of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal. ‘The election was a call to action,’ Edwards said, adding that Republicans could face a 1934-style election in 2010 if they are ‘seen as simply defenders of the status quo.’  ‘We have a model to follow,’ said newly minted House Democratic Caucus Chairman John Larson (Conn.), also pointing to 1934.” (Steven T. Dennis, “Democrats Look to ’34, Not ’94,” Roll Call, 11/19/08)

In May Of 2009, DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen Also Was Said To Be Talking “A Lot About 1934 These Days”: “Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, talks a lot about 1934 these days. He likes to remind his troops that President Roosevelt’s Depression-era Democrats gained nine seats that year after posting huge gains in 1930 and 1932, when beleaguered President Hoover was in the White House.” (Charlie Cook, “Midterm Exam,” National Journal, 05/02/09)

Several Months Later, The DCCC Claimed Their Goal Was To Limit Midterm Losses To 10 Seats: “The goal: lessen the likely hit Democrats expect to take in the midterm elections next year…the DCCC wants to limit that to just 10.” (“Democrats Target 36 “Underperforming” Republican Districts In Midterms,” U.S. News & World Report’s White House Bulletin, 06/10/09)

In January Of This Year, A Democrat Aide Acknowledged That His Party Would Take A 15 Seat Loss “In A Heartbeat”: “‘We will probably lose seats in districts that are hard to hold,’ a congressional Democratic leadership aide acknowledged.  ‘If we could keep our losses to 15 seats, we would take that in a heartbeat. We recognize that majority-party losses in a midterm are a historical trend, that there have been changes in the political environment, and that we have had to take on difficult issues. But we believe that we will continue in 2011 with a strong majority.'”  (Alexis Simendinger and Brian Friel, “A Hard Sell For Congressional Democrats,” National Journal, 01/16/10)

February 2010: DCCC Incumbent Retention Head Wasserman Schultz Predicts Democrats Will Lose Less Than 25 House Seats In The Fall: “Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who oversees incumbent retention for the DCCC, predicted Friday that Democrats would lose less than 25 House seats this fall.  ‘I think that the dire predictions – I don’t think they’re going to come true,’ she said in an interview in between addressing DNC members at the party’s meeting in Washington.  The Florida lawmaker acknowledged the party’s difficulties heading into the mid-terms, but made the case that Democrats could limit their losses by moving aggressively to address the economy and defining the opposition.” (Jonathan Martin, “Wasserman Schultz: Under 25-seat loss,” Politico, 02/05/10)

Today, DNC Chair Tim Kaine Predicted Democrat Losses Could Be As Much As 28 Seats In The House: “Well, it’s kind of like what you guys were saying earlier today. The norm would be, if the Republicans have an average night – the average since Teddy Roosevelt is – the party that doesn’t have the White House wins 28 House seats and four Senate seats. And we know we’re not living in average times.” (MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” 07/13/10)