GOP woos K Street with Robert Gibbs's words

For months, GOP officials have been making the case to donors and anybody else who will listen that they have a real chance to capture the 39 seats needed to reclaim the House. And Rep. Greg Walden (R-Ore.), a close ally of House Minority Leader John Boehner who was tasked to “sell the fight,” has been making the case at a regular Thursday meeting of the National Republican Congressional Committee and Republican-leaning lobbyists.

But it’s one thing for the Republican member of Congress whose job it is to make the pitch and something entirely different when one of President Barack Obama’s closest advisers says it so plainly.

“Now you not only have confirmation from the polling data, but the top spokesperson for the administration saying that Democrats are in trouble,” Walden said of Gibbs’s comment on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday that there are enough seats in play to swing control of the House. “We hope [lobbyists] will reassess their giving based on these atmospherics.”

Walden emphasized that he wasn’t issuing any threats to corporations and trade groups — “the legislation coming out of this Congress is threat enough,” he said — but he wasn’t shy about suggesting that business-oriented political action committees ought not wait until after Election Day to cut their checks to GOP candidates who stand a good chance of being elected.

“I know they don’t want to be caught by surprise,” the Republican said of access-minded lobbyists. “They have to answer to their clients.”

He added: “Everybody wants to look like they saw it coming, and it’s our job to help them look smart.”

Convincing K Street — and shaking its money trees — is no small matter for Republicans, who could use the help. The NRCC had $12 million in the bank as of the end of May, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had more than twice as much, with nearly $29 million on hand.

“They’ve heard the Republicans say they have a shot, they’ve listened to independent analysts say it; well, now you’ve got the White House saying they’ve got a chance,” said former Rep. Vin Weber (R-Minn.), now an influential lobbyist and political strategist. “It’ll encourage donors in Washington to give another look as we head into the final stretch.”

“I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was concerned about funding,” added former Rep. Bill Paxon (R-N.Y.), now also a powerful lobbyist. “Particularly in light of the funding problems at the [Republican National Committee], which will have an impact on House and Senate races.”

But Paxon said that Walden’s efforts and, more to the point, polling data and the overall political environment are prompting wary K Street donors to open up their wallets again for the GOP.

“The Washington political community has been coming to the realization, albeit gradually, that Republicans do have a chance,” Paxon observed. “The community was very slow in arriving to that. But we have witnessed over about three months real change.”

Contributions may be a lagging indicator of that recognition, but another longtime GOP lobbyist said he’s gotten a sense of the changing winds of K Street in discussions with corporate headhunters, as well.

“A few months ago, firms were insisting that they had to have the best Democrats — now they just want the best player available,” said the lobbyist.

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen declined to say anything directly to the lobbyist community but did urge caution by arguing that Walden and the Republicans were pushing only hype.

“This is going to be a tough election environment, but we will keep control of the House,” Van Hollen said.

As for the GOP’s effort to use Gibbs’s comments to send a message to lobbyists, Van Hollen brought up Tom DeLay-era efforts in which congressional Republicans demanded that industry groups hire only Republicans.

“If Republicans are trying to reinstate their K Street Project, we’ll remind people why they got rid of the Republican majority in the first place,” said the DCCC chairman.

Yet even if they are sympathetic to the GOP’s business-friendly outlook, much of the K Street crowd is more loyal to power than principle — and ever hesitant to risk losing access to whoever is controlling the agenda.

So it’s extraordinarily difficult to persuade lobbyists to gamble on giving to GOP challengers when the lobbyists need relationships with Democratic incumbents, many of whom keep tabs on who’s contributing to their opponents.

“The downtown community, whether Democrats are in charge or Republicans are in charge, [has] always favored incumbents,” said Steve Elmendorf, a well-connected Democratic lobbyist and former chief of staff to Rep. Dick Gephardt. “They’re risk-averse, and the least risky play is to support incumbents.”

Besides, if the bet doesn’t pay off, there are ways to quickly recoup losses.

“If the incumbent loses, they have a chance to get well with whoever wins,” Elmendorf said. “The [winner] will have a debt, reach out and co-opt support from previous backers of the incumbent.”

A GOP lobbyist who is active in party fundraising was more blunt.

“Your friends are your friends when you’re on top,” said this lobbyist, who requested anonymity to freely discuss a sensitive process. Business lobbyists “don’t get paid to invest in a challenger’s race. But if we take the House back, all these dopes will be there with a check.”

The lobbyist pointed to Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.), a veteran legislator facing a tough race, as an example of the kind of calculus lobbyists must make.

“The American Bankers Association is not going to write a check to Paul Kanjorski’s opponent. Is Kanjorski going to lose? Probably. But he’s a subcommittee chair on the Banking Committee, so they’re not going to write [his opponent] a check.”

Open-seat races present the best opportunity for Republicans to raise money from lobbyists, since there is no risk in crossing a sitting member. But if the political climate is such that it looks like the GOP can retake the House and win most of the seats up for grabs, K Street can be persuaded to invest.

Walden suggested PACs limit and hedge their bets.

“They don’t have to give [a Democratic incumbent] $5,000,” Walden said. “They can give them $1,000, and then I’ll show where they can give the other $4,000.”

Click here to read the full story.