House Outlook For 2010
| The national political environment shows no sign of changing between now and November, a bad sign for Democrats.
National polls generally continue to show President Barack Obama’s job approval ranging from the mid-40s to the low 50s, and voters are strongly inclined to deliver another message of change. With few exceptions, polling shows the GOP with a slight edge on the generic ballot question, marking a dramatic reversal from ‘06 and ‘08. Too many Democratic candidates are well under 50% in ballot tests, and party strategists are worried about their ability to turn out Obama voters in the midterm elections. Maybe more important, Independent and swing voters are turning to GOP candidates. The Democratic strategy is clear: redefine the 2010 election from a referendum on the President, the Congress and the economy into a choice between Democrats and Republicans. Then, blame the GOP for the current state of affairs, define them as opposed to positive change and destroy Republican candidates race by race. That’s a good strategy, but it isn’t likely to work well enough to deny the GOP a big gain. We now have 23 Democratic seats at least tilting toward the GOP, with just two Republican seats going in the Democrats’ direction. The large number of Democratic toss-ups and leans show why Democratic control of the House after November is very much in doubt. We reiterate our view that substantial Republican gains are inevitable and are increasing our target for most likely GOP gains from 25-30 seats to 28-33 seats. However, it is important to note that considerably larger Republican gains in excess of 39 seats are quite possible. |