Rothenberg: Heavy GOP Victory in House "Inevitable"

In case you haven’t had a chance to read the news lately, you can learn a lot from this latest update by Rothenberg Political Report: people are upset with the Democrats in the House. Respected nonpartisan political handicapper Stu Rothenberg noted today that the bad news for Democrats will continue, since “the national political environment shows no sign of changing between now and November.”

And what is that national political environment? Well, it’s that “with few exceptions, polling shows the GOP with a slight edge on the generic ballot question, marking a dramatic reversal from ‘06 and ‘08. Too many Democratic candidates are well under 50% in ballot tests, and party strategists are worried…”

At the National Republican Congressional Committee, this is old news. Our candidates are reporting strong fundraising numbers as the political environment continues to shift against Democrats (just check out this report from Alex Isenstadt from Politico). And while Pelosi has been busy pushing new expenses but not budgets, constituents have had enough.

In fact, the people are upset enough that Rothenberg feels comfortable declaring, “We reiterate our view that substantial Republican gains are inevitable and are increasing our target for most likely GOP gains from 25-30 seats to 28-33 seats. However, it is important to note that considerably larger Republican gains in excess of 39 seats are quite possible.”