Cory Gardner leads Betsy Markey by 11 points, poll says

Republican Cory Gardner has an 11-point lead over
Democratic incumbent Betsy Markey as the fall
congressional campaign gets underway, a new poll
by a GOP-affiliated group shows.

Gardner, a state representative from Yuma, leads
Markey 50-39 percent, according to a poll of 400
likely 4th Congressional District voters conducted
Aug. 23-26 and 28 for the American Action Forum,
which is headed by former Minnesota Republican
Sen. Norm Coleman. Margin of error for the survey
is listed at plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Colorado’s 4th Congressional District was among
10 western districts polled by the group, which
earlier had released results from Eastern and
Midwestern districts. The latest results were
released late Wednesday.

“It is clear that voters in West Coast polling believe
our nation is on the wrong track. It is important to
understand why there is such discontent and in
order to develop policies based on center-right
principles to give confidence to the American
people that our nation can be put back on track,”
said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the president of the
American Action Forum and Sen. John McCain’s
chief economic adviser in the 2008 campaign.

The Markey and Gardner campaigns did not
immediately comment on the poll results.

The AAF poll is the first one in the 4th
Congressional District to be made public this year.
It is almost a mirror image of a Survey USA poll
conducted at the same point in the 2008 campaign,
which showed Republican incumbent Marilyn
Musgrave unpopular with voters, who preferred her
largely unknown challenger, Markey.

In this year’s poll, 37 percent of respondents had a
favorable impression of Markey and 50 percent had
an unfavorable impression. For Gardner, 43 percent
of voters said they’d never heard of him and 21
percent said they had no opinion. Twenty-three
percent had a favorable opinion and 21 percent
unfavorable.

Musgrave’s campaign, faced with similar numbers in
2008 polling data, launched a sharp attack
campaign against Markey in an attempt to create a
negative impression of her with voters. Markey
wound up winning the race by 12 percentage
points, the first Democrat to win the district since
1972.

The American Action Forum poll has a couple of
flaws that likely will draw criticism from both
campaigns.

The poll asked voters only about the two major
party candidates, Markey and Gardner, and
excluded two other candidates on the ballot, Doug
Aden of the American Constitution Party and
independent candidate Ken “Wasco” Waskiewicz.

The poll also included fewer Republicans than the
actual electorate. Thirty-three percent of poll
respondents identified themselves as Republican;
they make up about 40 percent of the district’s
registered voters.

Twenty-seven percent of poll respondents identified
themselves as Democrats, matching their voter
registration numbers in the district. Thirty-seven
percent of respondents called themselves
independents; they make up 33 percent of district
registered voters.

Other key findings from the poll:

> Thirty-five percent of voters said Markey
deserved re-election and 56 percent said it was time
for someone else to hold the seat.

> Sixty-eight percent of district voters think the
country is on the wrong track, and only 25 percent
think it’s on the right track.

> In an open-ended question, 52 percent of
voters cited the economy and jobs as the most
important issue facing the country.

> Fifty-five percent of voters oppose the health-
care reform bill passed in to law earlier this year,
compared to 38 percent who supported the bill.
Markey voted for the final version of the bill in
March after voting against a different version in
November.

> Fifty-two percent of voters had an unfavorable
impression of President Barack Obama and 42
percent favorable. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had
a 28 percent favorable rating and a 62 percent
unfavorable rating.

> Markey’s votes in favor of the health care bill,
stimulus bill and cap-and-trade energy legislation
hurt her standing with district voters.

More details and reaction today on Coloradoan.com
and in Friday’s Coloradoan.

Click here to read the full story.