GOP turns up heat in Ga congressional races

WASHINGTON — With momentum flowing their way, Republicans are suddenly seeing new promise in several hotly contested congressional races in Georgia that they previously weren’t expected to have much of a chance of winning.

The GOP already controls seven of Georgia’s 13 congressional seats, as well as the state Legislature and the Governor’s Mansion.

Less than seven weeks before the November election, the party now is putting new pressure on two congressional seats that have long been held by Democrats, and is increasingly optimistic about a third seat.

“We think Georgia is especially ripe for us this year,” said Andy Sere, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the GOP group responsible for getting more Republicans in Congress.

Democrats aren’t rolling over.

“We are being as engaged [in Georgia] as the campaigns have asked us to be,” said Jesse Ferguson, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “These [campaigns] are by no means back burner for us.”

That said, the national Democratic Party is clearly paying less attention to the Georgia races than in the past, at least in part because it is busy putting out political fires elsewhere.

At the center of Republicans’ renewed emphasis on Georgia are the 2nd Congressional District in southwest Georgia, held by Democrat Sanford Bishop of Albany since 1993, and the 8th District that surrounds Macon, held by Democrat Jim Marshall since 2003.

Over the next several weeks, the National Republican Congressional Committee plans to pump $130,000 into television ads supporting Marshall’s challenger, state legislator Austin Scott. The Republican committee recently initiated Scott into its “Young Guns” program — a move that all but guarantees more financial and other support from the national GOP between now and November.

In the meantime, the GOP has come out swinging against Bishop, recently orchestrating from Washington an avalanche of bad press about his decision to steer scholarships from the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation to his family members. On Thursday, Bishop’s Republican challenger, state legislator Mike Keown, was bumped up to the GOP’s “Young Guns” status, too.

“The 2nd Congressional District does not belong to the national GOP, the NRCC or Mike Keown. It belongs to the people of central and southwest Georgia. I have great confidence in the wisdom of the people of the 2nd Congressional district and they will not be blinded by the smokescreens and tricks of Mike Keown and the National Republicans,” Bishop said Thursday.

Also in contention, albeit to a much lesser degree, is the 12th Congressional District in eastern Georgia. There, Republican Ray McKinney, a nuclear plant project manager, hopes his endorsements by some tea party groups and recent tea party momentum will help win the seat held by Democrat John Barrow of Savannah since 2005.

In past years, the DCCC has included Marshall and Barrow in its “Frontline” program that sent national campaign funds their way. This year, the two candidates aren’t part of the program, in part because Marshall and Barrow are now more seasoned, DCCC spokesman Ferguson said.

If Republicans manage to pick up the three districts in the November elections, it would dramatically change the political landscape of Georgia. With the exception of metro Atlanta, the entire state would be represented by Republicans in the U.S. House.

Nobody is saying it will be a shoo-in for the GOP. But some political prognosticators are now suggesting that the Georgia districts could be a part of what is expected to be a major Republican victory nationwide in November.

Last week, a political handicapping Web site run by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics changed its rating on Bishop’s district from “safe Democratic” to “likely Democratic.” It rates Marshall’s district as “leaning Democratic.”

Political research firm Cook Political Report is now calling Marshall’s district a “tossup” and now rates Bishop’s only as “leaning Democratic.”

“It’s a Republican year and Georgia is a red state, so it is a target for the GOP,” said Kennesaw State University political professor Kerwin Swint.

The incumbent Democrats who are under fire know they have a fight ahead of them, but they also say the renewed Republican pressure is nothing they haven’t seen before.

“We hear this story every election cycle,” Barrow wrote in an e-mail. “The only thing I can do is keep working on behalf of the people of the 12th District and hope they think I’m doing a good enough job to re-elect me.”

Marshall’s chief of staff, Doug Moore, echoed Barrow’s sentiment.

“I think this year will probably be a little harder — but I don’t know if it can get any harder than it was in 2006,” he said.

Marshall defeated former congressman Mac Collins in 2006 by a whisker-thin 51-49 margin under intense pressure from the GOP. The only congressional race in the country involving an incumbent Democrat that was closer that year: Barrow’s 864-vote win over Republican challenger Max Burns.

The Republican interest in the 2nd District race is perhaps most surprising, since nine-term congressman Bishop seemed solidly safe until a few months ago.

But that was before revelations of the scholarship controversy and other missteps by Bishop’s campaign, including an embarrassing incident in which a staff member cursed at a constituent on a voice mail recording, suddenly made his chances of re-election shakier.

Neither Bishop nor his spokespeople responded to repeated requests to comment for this story. In a recent news release, Bishop acknowledged the GOP’s renewed interest in the district, calling the National Republican Congressional Committee Keown’s “lead supporter.”

Keown said the national Republican Party stepped up its interest in his race in recent weeks in reaction to his rising poll numbers and his success at fundraising. Federal campaign finance records show that Keown had more cash on hand than Bishop as of June 30 ($475,105 vs. $404,594) — something that’s rare in a race between a newcomer to a federal race and a nine-term incumbent.

“If you want to know why their [the national GOP’s] interest level has come up, it’s because they’re now looking to this race and thinking we can win,” Keown said.

Another part of the reason for the Republican push lies in the fact that the national Democratic Party has so far done relatively little to defend its turf in Georgia.

The DCCC currently has no plans to buy any advertising in support of Marshall, Bishop or Barrow, said spokesman Ferguson. It can’t do much more to help Marshall, Bishop and Barrow — like send national Democratic figures to campaign for them — since one of the biggest issues the three are running against is a backlash against national Democrats. Bishop, in particular, is under fire from conservatives for his votes favoring the health care law, the Recovery Act, and more financial regulations.

That could be particularly troublesome for Marshall, who is facing what could be the toughest political challenge of his career.

“What we’re hearing is that they [the national Democratic Party] is doing a triage,” said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock. “You have to wonder if they looked at this one and said, ‘Maybe this is too hard and maybe there are [other candidates elsewhere] who are in less danger who can hang on.’ ”

Moore said the Marshall campaign has received support — not money, but campaign research and other assistance — from the national Democratic Party, and is confident it will get more assistance if needed.

“We will get the support we need to run the race we need to run,” Moore said.

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