Republican Tim Walberg has 4-point lead over U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer in latest independent poll

Schauer trails Walberg in the poll 42 percent to 38 percent, with 12 percent still undecided with just 43 days left before the Nov. 2 midterm election.

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Share The 7th Congressional District has been a Republican target since Schauer defeated Walberg in 2008 in a heated and tight race, winning by fewer than 7,500 votes. The traditionally Republican district is seen by most political handicappers as a tossup this year.

Both sides are expected to spend lavishly on the seat and the airwaves have been filled in the past few weeks with attack ads from Schauer’s campaign and his allies, and from outside conservative groups targeting Schauer.

Todd Cook, partner with Main Street Strategies, a political communication and grassroots advocacy firm, said these polls tend to skew conservative because younger voters often only have cell phones.

“But Mark Schauer knows this is a tough district,” Cook said. “Neither side will run away with it. The fact that it shows it is close is not surprising.”

The automated poll was conducted Monday by The Rossman Group in partnership with Team TelCom.

It surveyed 300 likely voters in the district and 400 likely voters around Michigan on statewide races. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percent.

Less than a quarter of respondents identified themselves as Democrats in the poll, and more than 80 percent were 46 or older.

Among independents, Schauer holds a 9-point advantage over Walberg.

“This race is neck and neck, even though Walberg should be taking advantage of the Republican makeup of the district and the anti-incumbent mood,” Kelly Rossman-McKinney, CEO and founder of The Rossman Group, wrote in a statement. “Schauer has his work cut out for him, but he’s actually ahead among Independents right now, which is a feat no other Democratic candidate we’ve polled has been able to pull off since we started these surveys four weeks ago.”

With the three other candidates in the race, Green Party candidate Richard Wunsch was earning 5 percent and US Taxpayer Party candidate Scott Aughney and Libertarian Greg Merle were each garnering 1 percent.

Regarding the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, 43 percent said they should be kept in place for all, while 36 percent said they should only be extended for those making less than $250,000.

President Obama and the majority of Democrats want to extend them only for those making less than $250,000.

But Republicans, Schauer and more than 30 other Democrats also want to extend them for the wealthiest Americans.

Schauer has said the economy is still fragile and recovering from a deep recession, and that “now is not the time to raise income taxes on anybody.”

He has said he supports extending them for at least a year and “maybe beyond” but then gauge how the economy is doing.

According to the poll, 70 percent of Schauer’s supporters disagree with his position and only want to extend the tax cuts for those making less than $250,000.

Despite the ads from Schauer and his Democratic supporters attacking Walberg’s position on Social Security and Medicare, Walberg has a 9-point lead over Schauer with those 65 and older.

Walberg spokesman Joe Wicks said the poll is a positive sign for their campaign.

“They’ve spent millions in TV ads and voters are still rejecting Mark Schauer and his big-spending agenda,” Wicks said. “They’ve had a money advantage and we haven’t really started spending to get our message out, and (Schauer is) still in the 30s. That’s a bad sign for an incumbent.”

The Schauer campaign said it may not look good for Walberg.

“We don’t put much stock in automated robo-polls, but for those who do, Tim Walberg has gone from a 10-point lead to a statistical dead heat in just a few short weeks,” Schauer campaign spokesman Zack Pohl wrote in a statement. “It seems clear voters are rejecting Tim Walberg’s radical plan to privatize Social Security and abolish Medicare.”

Last week, the firm released a poll in Michigan’s 9th Congressional District showed that the state’s other freshman Democrat, Gary Peters was behind his Republican challenger Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski, 45 to 41 percent. But the results were within the margin of error and 10 percent of voters were undecided and three other candidates had 4 percent of the vote.

Also found in the poll, in the race for governor, Republican Rick Snyder is extending his large lead over Democrat Virg Bernero 54 percent to 30, with 16 percent undecided.

In the race for Secretary of State, Republican Ruth Johnson has a 48 percent to 25 percent lead over Democrat Jocelyn Benson, with 29 percent undecided.

For Attorney General, Republican Bill Schuette is ahead of Democrat David Leyton 48 to 24 percent, with 28 percent undecided.

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