Murphy Trailing by 14 in PA-08

Republican challenger Mike Fitzpatrick leads Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) by 14 points among likely voters in the 8th Congressional District, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll released Thursday.

The poll, which surveyed 464 registered voters last week and has a margin of error of +/-4.5%, shows Fitzpatrick leading Murphy by 10 points among registered voters, 46% to 36%. The split grows 4 points when only likely voters are considered, a sign that the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats is again a factor in the race as it is midterm election nationwide.

The numbers will likely send shivers down the spines of Democrats everywhere because many pundits have dubbed the 8th District race a national bellwether. Murphy, a 2-term incumbent, represents a suburban Philadelphia district that gave Pres. Obama 54% of the vote in ’08, and its leftward shift along with the rest of the city’s suburbs have been the force behind Democratic victories in Pennsylvania the last 8 years.

But the district appears to have turned on Obama. The president’s approval rating there is only 37 percent, a 17-point drop what he garnered in the ’08 election. Gov. Ed Rendell (D), perhaps somewhat surprisingly, has a 46% approval rating in the district, which is made up almost entirely of Bucks County.

Two in 5 registered adults say Murphy deserves re-election, while 47% say it’s time for a change.

The Murphy-Fitzpatrick race is a rematch of the ’06 contest. Murphy won that race by only 1,500 votes.

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