Democrats Facing Tough Numbers in the MIdwest

This morning, National Journal’s Hotline published troubling polling numbers for House Democrats in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin.  Check out this piece by Jeremy Jacobs:

“… Dem Midwest Trouble: New polling out of the Midwest commissioned by the NRCC shows House Democrats facing sizable deficits in competitive races so far.

In 4 targeted districts, the Democrat in the race is trailing by double digits. And Rep. Phil Hare (D-IL), viewed in strong shape at the beginning of the year, now looks to be ins serious trouble, trailing his Republican challenger by one point. (It’s no coincidence the DCCC reserved air time Tuesday in his district.)

Like all partisan polls, the NRCC surveys should be taken with a grain of salt. These numbers do, however, mirror national and statewide polls in the region that show Pres. Obama‘s approval rating below 45% and Republicans enjoying a near double digit advantage on the generic ballot.

The polls featuring incumbent Democrats are most striking. In WI 08, Rep. Steve Kagen (D) is trailing roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R) 57% to 39% in a On Message poll of 400 likely voters conducted Sept. 15-16. While Kagen was always seen as a target – the DCCC had reserved time in the Green Bay district — these are miserable numbers for an incumbent.

Hare trails businessman Bobby Schilling (R) 44% to 43% in a Tarrance Group survey that was conducted Sept. 23-25. When asked if Hare deserved re-election or if it was time for someone else, just 35% of respondents he should be re-elected.

Retiring Rep. David Obey‘s seat in WI 07 has been one of the most targeted races of the cycle so far. Both the NRCC and the DCCC have run ads to boost the campaigns of former “Real World” star and Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (R) and state Sen. Julie Lassa (D). The NRCC poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates from Sept. 15-16, shows Duffy holding a commanding 52% to 38% lead over Lassa among 400 likely voters. Those numbers are strikingly different than the internal poll Lassa released Tuesday showing her trailing Duffy 42% to 41%.

Michigan’s 1st District seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Bart Stupak (D), has also been a target for both parties, as both the NRCC and DCCC have aired ads there. The NRCC survey, conducted by Hill Research Consultants Sept. 19-21, found Republican Dan Benishek leading Democrat Gary McDowell40% to 24% among 400 likely voters. In this Upper Peninsula district, Obama is viewed unfavorably by 56% in the survey.

Lastly in the open seat race for Rep. Brad Ellsworth‘s (D) IN 08, heart surgeon Larry Bucshon (R) leads state Rep. Trent Van Haaften (D) leads 41% to 20% in an On Message survey of 400 likely voters. Respondents said they would prefer a Republican on the generic ballot question, 45% to 29% in that poll, which was conducted Sept. 13-14.

All of the surveys had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. …”

You can read the full article here.