Paul Gosar poses big challenge for incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick

“I don’t know how good you are,” the Prescott Valley man said, “but you’ve got to be better than the alternative.”

Like many voters across the country, Rubin is angry about passage of changes to the health-care system. Others bristle at the federal stimulus.

As a Democrat who voted for both measures, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Gosar’s opponent, is feeling the brunt of those complaints as she tries to hold onto a seat she first won two years ago.

In the eyes of political handicappers, Kirkpatrick is among the most endangered incumbents in Congress. In 2008, she benefited from voter dismay at the indictment of Rick Renzi, a Republican who represented Arizona’s 1st Congressional District for six years, and a desire for political change in a crumbling economy.

The mood is different now. Despite a flurry of spending by the federal government, unemployment remains high, at 9.6 percent.

Kirkpatrick knows she is making a tough sell this year. Last week, she reportedly sent a fundraising e-mail captioned “Gosar wins” intended to scare her supporters into action.

She has positioned herself as an independent, rarely mentioning her political party and often stressing the times when she breaks with its leaders. She notes that AARP, an advocacy group for seniors, supported the health-care overhaul. She touts the need for temporarily extending the tax cuts passed under President George W. Bush that expire Dec. 31.

“I’ve always said rural Arizona votes for the person, not the party,” she said.

Her personal touch is one of Kirkpatrick’s main selling points.

Mary Beager, a retired mining worker in Clifton, said she called Kirkpatrick’s office for clarification about a banking bill. Kirkpatrick called her back that day.

“It made me feel like an important voter,” said Beager, a cancer survivor who also worries about the health-care overhaul but is willing to give it a try because of her own dependence on Medicare.

Defining the opponent

Other voters aren’t as patient. Gosar is trying to capitalize on this at events such as the recent Yavapai Cattle Growers’ Association calf sale.

“People in this district want to be heard,” said Gosar, a Republican and political novice who says his career as a dentist is built on customer service. “The federal government has ignored most of them here.”

Gosar frames Kirkpatrick as a loyal, liberal ally of President Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. He cites her votes for the $862 billion stimulus plan as well as the health-care plan, which is expected to cost $1 trillion but also lower long-term government costs. He calls both plans reckless.

Kirkpatrick has voted with her party 86 percent of the time, one of the lowest party-loyalty percentages in Congress, according to a Washington Post tally.

For her part, Kirkpatrick portrays Gosar as a millionaire who was late paying business and property taxes 12 times. Gosar notes she was late on her taxes once. Kirkpatrick pushes her own conservative priorities, such as pay cuts for Congress and using money repaid by banks that were bailed out to pay down the national debt. As a sign of her commitment, she says she has cut her staffing expenses and has sent portions of her salary to pay down the U.S. debt.

Gosar presents himself as a small-business owner with a traditional conservative agenda. He would make the Bush tax cuts permanent, even for the wealthy. He favors the private sector over the government in health care. He wants to rein in government spending and protect gun rights.

Kirkpatrick said Gosar’s promises of sweeping budget cuts would include Social Security and points to a quote from him in Human Events, a conservative publication, as a sign that Gosar questions the constitutionality of the program. Gosar maintains that he wants to preserve the program’s promise to senior citizens and opposes privatizing it.

Gosar touts the conservative stars supporting him, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Kirkpatrick counters with the support she has from most of the sheriffs of her sprawling, rural district.

Voter-registration edge

Although conservatives are more energized this election, Kirkpatrick is helped by a small voter-registration edge.

As of the August primary, there were about 152,000 registered Democrats in the district, 20,000 more than registered Republicans.

There are an additional 114,000 independent and third-party voters. National polls indicate these voters are supporting GOP candidates by double-digit margins this year. If that trend holds true in the first district, Democrats in particular will need good turnout, something experts say is doubtful in races around the country.

Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political prognosticator, thinks the seat is now leaning to Gosar.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the “Rothenberg Political Report,” a newsletter, is less cautious about the race.

“Her numbers are terrible,” he said. “Democrats are disappointed and have cut back on some early television reservations for time. Everybody we talk to, everything we know, every bit of data we see suggests Ann Kirkpatrick is in extremely, extremely bad shape.”

Kirkpatrick began the general election with a sizable cash advantage, but it’s not clear she can keep it.

Entering August, she had raised $1.4 million and still had nearly $900,000 of it. By comparison, Gosar had raised $400,000 and had spent all but $41,000 in a crowded GOP primary.

Altogether, Republican candidates in the district raised $1.3 million, nearly matching Kirkpatrick’s total. That suggests Gosar may find ample new conservative support in the weeks ahead. The National Republican Congressional Committee has designated Gosar one of its top “Young Guns,” signaling the party also will pour money into the race.

While Democrats nationally have stepped up attacks on the GOP, Kirkpatrick continues to distance herself from her party.

In an early September meeting with The Republic’s Editorial Board, Kirkpatrick said she would reject support from Obama, saying he doesn’t “get” Arizona and Western issues and that she’s “kind of unhappy with him right now.” She disagreed with Rep. Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz., who called for a boycott of the state after the passage of Senate Bill 1070, the state’s immigration-enforcement law.

Meanwhile, Kirkpatrick said she has worked productively with Republicans Jeff Flake and John McCain in Washington.

If Kirkpatrick is running away from the Democratic Party, she is running right at Gosar, who seems content to maintain a lower-profile campaign. Right after he won the August primary, Kirkpatrick challenged Gosar to five debates across the district. Gosar has resisted the challenge and skipped the meeting with The Republic Editorial Board without offering another date.

Like many candidates in tough campaigns this year, both skipped a “political courage test” by Project Vote Smart, a nonpartisan group that tracks the records and positions of candidates. The test poses direct, yes-or-no type questions on important or controversial issues.

There is little polling on the race, and each side can point to friendly surveys taken in late August. Kirkpatrick’s internal polling had her with a 4 percentage point lead over Gosar. A firm that supports Republicans had Gosar with a 6 percentage-point lead.

If Kirkpatrick is going to win, she will need the help of people like Tomas Teskey, a veterinarian who said he voted for her in 2008 but is skeptical of all politicians.

“Why would I want to help perpetuate a Congress that can’t clean its own house?” he asked with disgust. After chatting with Kirkpatrick at the calf sale, he was asked whether he would vote for her again. He paused.

“I’ll consider it.”

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