The Democrats' brutal weekend

It added up to a brutal weekend for Democrats, as the consensus among election analysts, already bearish on the party’s prospects, took a turn for the worse over the past 48 hours.

In the eyes of the experts, the House Democratic majority most likely won’t survive Nov. 2, with political handicappers expanding their predictions to envision the possibility of a Democratic wipeout.

Analyst Stu Rothenberg pegs the number of competitive seats at 100. Charlie Cook says it’s 97. Virtually all of those seats are held by Democrats.

Rothenberg is predicting a likely Republican gain of 40 to 50 seats, with 60 seats possible. Republicans need a net pickup of 39 seats to take the House.

One House Democrat, reflecting widespread conversations with his colleagues, guessed Sunday that his party will lose 50 seats. Many, he said, are calling with urgent pleas for more contributions.

The Senate may stay in Democratic hands — but only by the narrowest of margins, so slim that it will make a handful of moderates from both parties the only people who will decide whether anything gets done.

Key races in blue states slipped further from the Republicans’ grasp, and Senate Republicans’ campaign chief, John Cornyn, declined to predict on “Fox News Sunday” that his party will win the upper chamber.

That’s what passed for good news for Democrats, on a weekend when the money followed the GOP momentum at full gallop. In the House, at least 40 House Democrats were outraised by GOP opponents. In the Senate, the Republican candidate had the third-quarter fundraising edge in all but three of the top 20 races, according to a POLITICO review of campaign finance data.

Republicans in these marquee races also are sitting on stockpiles of cash for the stretch run — $50 million in all, a $16 million edge over their Democratic Senate rivals.

Entering the final two weeks, it seemed that no serious Republican hopeful would go wanting for cash — between their own fundraising, party committees and the independent conservative groups like American Crossroads, which pledged to join with other GOP groups to spend $50 million on TV ads slamming House Democrats.

Some of these groups have turned their attention to even second- and third-tier GOP candidates hoping to catch some Democrats by surprise — or at least lure some Democratic dollars away from more winnable races.

National Republican Congressional Committee Communications Director Ken Spain said Sunday that his committee is in the process of spending $50 million on TV ads in 70 districts. He says the NRCC has outspent the DCCC during each of the past seven weeks.

Remaining defiant, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs predicted flatly on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Democrats would retain the House and Senate because voters are becoming more engaged in the final weeks. He pointed to the tens of thousands who have attended rallies in Massachusetts on Saturday and Ohio on Sunday.

Gibbs backtracked from his comments when he appeared on the show in July and said Democrats could lose the House.

“There’s no question it is a tough and challenging political environment,” Gibbs said Sunday. “We’re the beneficiary of a lot of political real estate after 2006 and 2008 that haven’t been held by Democrats for a long period of time. But look, I think that campaigns in this cycle are being run on a lot of local issues and issues that are important, not nationally, but to individual states and independent, independent — individual congressional districts.”

President Barack Obama’s senior adviser David Axelrod didn’t sound as optimistic as Gibbs, predicting on CNN’s “State of the Union” only that “the Republicans will have more seats in Congress regardless of whether they have control or not.”

Obama was stumping in Columbus, Ohio, Sunday, but even he is struggling to close the enthusiasm gap. A poll released Sunday by The Associated Press and Knowledge Networks showed many voters who supported Obama in 2008 on track to stay home or support Republicans. One quarter of those who cast ballots for Obama are planning to or thinking about voting Republican this year, according to the poll.

And a National Public Radio survey of likely voters that was released Friday showed that Republican candidates lead in 53 competitive House districts now held by Democrats.

In the Senate, three of the most endangered Democratic incumbents — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, Sen. Patty Murray of Washington and Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas — were outraised by their GOP challengers.

Still, the few bright spots for Democrats were all in the Senate. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee posted a record fundraising quarter this week. Embattled Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) was able to surpass deep-pocketed Oshkosh plastics manufacturer Ron Johnson, having raised around $4.2 million

And Democrats outraised Republicans in two races the GOP could use to get a majority.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) took in about $700,000 more than Republican Ken Buck. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), whose $6.2 million haul marked the best performance of any Senate candidate in her party, outraised Republican Carly Fiorina by around $300,000.

Bennet and Boxer wins would go a long way toward denying Republicans the Senate — a task already made harder for the GOP by Connecticut’s Richard Blumenthal’s improved showing and by Delaware’s Chris Coons’s double-digit lead over Republican tea party hopeful Christine O’Donnell. O’Donnell has complained about a lack of help from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

“I don’t think there’s a scenario where the Republicans take control of the United States Senate if I’m successful in this Senate seat,” Coons said on ABC’s “This Week.” “And I’ve been told that’s a critical strategic concern for folks who are looking at this race from outside.”

The NRSC’s Cornyn sought to dampen expectations for Republican gains during his Sunday Fox News appearance.

“We’re going to fight for every seat we can possibly get,” he said. “I’m not predicting we’re going to get back to the majority. It may be a two-cycle process.”

Chris Frates, David Catanese, Mike Allen and Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.

Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly listed the amount Sen. Russ Feingold raised during the third quarter. His total exceeded that of Ron Johnson, his GOP opponent.

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