Guinta Holds the Lead as Election Nears

Polls showed Shea-Porter, D-Rochester, trailing the former Manchester mayor throughout the fall, with experts doubting she could make up the difference over the final weekend of campaigning.

UNH political science professor Dante Scala — one of the state’s political experts — said Shea-Porter heads into a Tuesday election that has unsatisfied Republican voters more motivated and poised to shift the tides of politics in the Granite State and on a national level.

“I think she stands in an unhappy situation with a lot of Democratic members of Congress who were elected in 2006 or 2008,” Scala said.

Scala said a wave of voter discontent that helped Democrats get elected in recent elections has turned with Guinta being among the Republicans who are likely to benefit dissatisfaction with the majority party.

“They are facing their first elections where the issue environment isn’t in their favor and the wind is in their face,” Scala said.

The results of a WMUR/UNH New Hampshire Election Poll released Oct. 15 showed Shea-Porter facing an increasingly difficult re-election bid with 48 percent of likely District 1 voters saying they will support Guinta compared to the incumbent’s 36 percent showing.

The findings — conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center — involved the polling of 709 randomly selected likely voters in New Hampshire who were interviewed by phone between Oct. 7 and Oct. 12.

The survey suggested Shea-Porter’s support among undeclared voters appears to be trending down.

Subsequent Midterm Election polling data released Oct. 20 by the Washington-based news source “The Hill” suggested Shea-Porter trailed Guinta by five points, 42 percent to 47 percent, with nine percent of likely voters being undecided.

That poll indicates Shea-Porter remains more popular among younger and female voters, while Guinta is being favored by older voters, male voters and an independent voting sector that will help decided the race.

Guinta — also a former state representative — has run a campaign positioning him as a conservative-minded candidate who opposes big government and large federal initiatives like the stimulus funding and national health care reform.

He has sought to appeal to the business community and pledged to cut government spending.

Shea-Porter has campaigned on her record and touted herself as the candidate dedicated to protecting the middle-class and all working people, with many of her endorsements coming from unions like Portsmouth Naval Shipyard’s Metal Trades Council.

The two have sparred openly on issues concerning campaign finance, health care reform and their differing views on tax cuts.

Guinta has supported extending Bush-era tax cuts to all, while Shea-Porter has suggested they only be offered to individuals making $200,000 a year or less or married couples making less than $250,000.

Shea-Porter has been defending stimulus spending as having helped create jobs, while Guinta has criticized government programs to stimulate the economy as largely unsuccessful.

At issue throughout the election season have been allegations that Guinta was involved with irregular campaign contributions.

Guinta, during the primary, amended a disclosure form to list a previously unreported bank account holding between $250,000 and $500,000. He updated the form after lending his campaign $245,000, raising questions about where the money came from.

Guinta has said it was a simple mistake, but Shea-Porter and her supporters have been relentless in attempting to convince voters the campaign financing issue is a sign the Republican should not be trusted to hold public office.

Scala said Shea-Porter seems to have been “outmatched” in terms of financial resources.

“His friends are bringing a lot more to the fight than Shea-Porter’s friends,” Scala said.

The UNH political expert said all signs continue to point toward Nov. 2 being a good day for Republicans.

“Democrats will work hard to turn out their vote, but all election season Republican enthusiasm has been outweighing Democrat enthusiasm. These things don’t turn on a dime,” Scala said.

Both candidates were slated to be working hard over the weekend to reach out to voters as they make their final push toward Tuesday.

Shea-Porter was expected to make stops at retail stores and social clubs in Manchester and Rochester with other appearances focused on rallying those who are helping get Democrat voters to the polls on Nov. 2.

Guinta’s campaign planned an aggressive “get out the vote” initiative throughout the district that would see the Republican congressional hopeful joining his supporters in making telephone calls and walking neighborhoods to meet voters.

The former Manchester mayor’s travels included a planned trip to Somersworth where he was expected to go door-to-door to reach out to possible supporters.

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