The Political Price of Obamanomics

September 9, 2011

As Voters Reject Obama’s Failed Policies, the Unpopular President Is Dragging Democrat Candidates Down with Him

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) on Thursday rushed to the aid of their embattled candidate in the deep blue NY-09 congressional district, making a $500,000 ad buy on his behalf.
It’s not hard to see why. Democrats all over America are running away from President Obama, fearing that the unpopularity of the president’s failed policies may redound to them.
If President Obama’s tanking approval numbers are putting even a deep blue seat in New York City at risk, are there any seats safe for Democrats next cycle?

BACKGROUND

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) on Thursday rushed to the aid of their embattled candidate in the deep blue NY-09 congressional district, making a $500,000 ad buy on his behalf:

DEMOCRATS “SCRAMBLING TO HOLD ONTO THEIR OWN TURF” IN NEW YORK CITY DUE TO ANGER AT FAILED OBAMA POLICIES: “But today, with Obama’s approval rating at 42 percent, Democrats have watched Nevada’s 2nd CD slip away and are scrambling to hold onto their own turf in Queens and Brooklyn.” (“A Tale of Two Special Elections: NV-02 to Likely Republicans, NY-09 to Toss Up,” Cook Political Report, 9/7/2011)

“DCCC DROPS A HALF-MILLION TO SAVE WEINER SEAT.” (Jessica Taylor, “DCCC Drops A Half-Million to Save Weiner Seat,” National Journal, 9/8/2011)

It’s not hard to see why. Democrats all over America are running away from President Obama, fearing that the unpopularity of the president’s failed policies may redound to them:

DEM CANDIDATE WEPRIN: MAYBE I’LL SUPPORT OBAMA, MAYBE I WON’T:“Weprin seems very aware of the effect the president is having on his race. Just this week, when talking with the Jewish Press, he wouldn’t fully commit to backing the Obama’s reelection. ‘Will I eventually support Obama on his reelection? Probably. Do I disagree with him on his Israel policy? Absolutely. I will probably not refuse to endorse him because I think I will be more effective by supporting him but at the same time being very strongly against him on some of his policies,’ Weprin told the paper.” (Jessica Taylor, “Obama Unpopular In Weiner’s New York City District,” National Journal,9/2/11)

DEMOCRATS ARE “INCREASINGLY CALCULATING HOW CLOSE IS TOO CLOSE TO AN UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT OBAMA”: “As these members begin to focus on their reelection bids after Labor Day, they are increasingly calculating how close is too close to an unpopular President Obama.” (Alex Roarty and Beth Reinhardt, “Democrats Distancing Themselves from Obama,” National Journal, 9/1/2011)

“THE CORE PROBLEM” FOR DEMOCRATS IS OBAMA: “But the core problem will remain, and is a bigger problem for Democrats seeking to regain the House and retain the Senate — Obama very well may be more of a hindrance than he was in 2010, and that’s causing heartburn for many Democratic strategists.” (Jessica Taylor, “Obama Unpopular In Weiner’s New York City District,” National Journal, 9/2/2011)

NEW YORK DEMOCRAT REP. BILL OWENS REFUSES TO ENDORSE OBAMA: “New York Democratic Rep. Bill Owens is declining to endorse President Barack Obama’s reelection, saying he’ll have to ‘wait and see what everybody comes forward with.'”(Dave Catanese, “Owens Declines to Endorse Obama,” Politico, 8/22/2011)

FLORIDA SEN. BILL NELSON DEMURS AS TO WHETHER HE’LL CAMPAIGN WITH OBAMA: “CLEARLY, THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE SOME MISTAKES.” “Part of Nelson’s job is to get re-elected, and the leader of his party’s ticket, President Obama, is doing horribly in the polls. Why and will Nelson campaign with him? Nelson didn’t quite answer. ‘The president and vice president are my friends. They’re my former colleagues. Clearly, the president has made some mistakes. The American people are tired of the excessive partisanship and the excessive ideological rigidity where you can’t get anything done.'” (Marc Caputo, “Bill Nelson on hurricane politics, taxes and Barack Obama’s “mistakes,'” The Miami Herald’s “Naked Politics,” 9/1/2011)

“SEA CHANGE FROM THE EARLY DAYS OF [OBAMA’S] PRESIDENCY,” AS DEMS RUN AWAY FROM STIMULUS AND GOVERNMENT HEALTHCARE TAKEOVER: It’s a sea change from the early days of his presidency, when liberal and moderate Democrats alike sought to tie themselves to the president and benefit from his popularity and charisma. Most moderate Democrats supported his stimulus and health care reform legislation that they’re now distancing themselves from.” (Alex Roarty and Beth Reinhardt, “Democrats Distancing Themselves from Obama,” National Journal, 9/1/2011)

If President Obama’s tanking approval numbers are putting even a deep blue seat in New York City at risk, are there any seats safe for Democrats next cycle?:

NY-09 SEAT HAS DEMOGRAPHICS SIMILAR TO SEAT HELD BY DCCC CHAIRMAN STEVE ISRAEL: “One other note about #NY09. DCCC Chair Steve Israel represents a nearby NYC district w/ similar demos, loss would be big embarrassment.” (Tweet from Josh Kraushaar, National Journal, 9/8/2011)

DEM STRATEGIST: OBAMA UNPOPULARITY COULD PUT OTHER NEW YORK DEMS IN TROUBLE: ” ‘The fear is that with a Republican [Robert Turner] being so close for the Weiner seat, which is in a traditionally safe Democratic district, that Democratic marginals [in hard-fought districts] like Maurice Hinchey, Paul Tonko and Louise Slaughter, will be in trouble next year,’ a top Democratic said yesterday, referring to three upstate Congress members.” (Fredric U. Dicker, “O, What A Drag He Is for Dems,” The New York Post, 9/6/2011)

REP. PETER DEFAZIO: OBAMA COULD LOSE OREGON. “And, DeFazio said, he’s not sure Obama will do well in Oregon in 2012, even though he won nearly 57 percent of the vote there three years ago.

” ‘I believe Oregon is very much in play,’ he said. ‘I mean, we are one of the harder hit states in the union, particularly my part of the state … [P]eople are shaking their head and saying ‘I don’t know if I’d vote for him again.'” (Jennifer Epstein, “Dem Rep. DeFazio: Obama Could Lose,” Politico, 8/19/2011)

RETIRING BLUE DOG DAN BOREN ON OBAMA: “IF [NEXT YEAR] HE IS WHERE HE IS NOW, IT’S NOT GOING TO WORK FOR DEMOCRATS.” (Alex Roarty and Beth Reinhardt, “Democrats Distancing Themselves from Obama,” National Journal, 9/1/2011)

POLITICO/BATTLEGROUND: “IT’S A ROUGH DAY WHEN THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT A NEW… POLL HAS YOUR APPROVAL RATING AT 45 PERCENT,” DISAPPROVAL AT 50%. (Jonathan Allen, Politico’s “The Huddle”, 9/6/2011)

59% DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA ON ECONOMY, JUST 39% APPROVE. (Carrie Budoff Brown, “Battleground Poll: Obama Approval Rating Down Amid Deep Economic Fears,” Politico, 9/5/2011)

THE WASHINGTON POST POLL: MORE THAN 60% DISAPPROVE OF OBAMA ON THE ECONOMY AND JOBS. (Jon Cohen and Dan Balz, “Obama Ratings Sink to New Lows as Hope Fades,” The Washington Post, 9/6/2011)

OBAMA HITS “NEW CAREER LOW,” 43% APPROVAL, AND 53% DISAPPROVAL, “A NEW HIGH.” (Jon Cohen and Dan Balz, “Obama Ratings Sink to New Lows as Hope Fades,” The Washington Post, 9/6/2011)

NBC/WSJ: OBAMA DISAPPROVAL AT 51%, HIGHEST SINCE INAUGURATION: “A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of 1,000 adults, taken Aug. 27-31, found that 44% of Americans approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as president, with more than half, or 51%, disapproving for the first time since his inauguration.” (Jonathan Weisman, “Voter Discontent Deepens Ahead of Obama Jobs Plan,” The Wall Street Journal, 9/6/2011)

HOWEVER, SUPPORT FOR GOP-CONTROLLED CONGRESS “AT HIGHEST LEVEL” SINCE 1996: “But, voter preference for a Republican-controlled Congress is at its highest level in recent memory, according to the WSJ/NBC poll. Forty-seven percent of registered voters polled say they prefer a GOP Congress and 41 percent say they want Democrats in charge. In October 2010, Democrats were preferred 46-44. It’s the first time Republicans have been riding so high on that question dating back to 1996, the first year in which numbers were made available by the WSJ and NBC.”(Jonathan Allen, Politico’s “The Huddle”, 9/6/2011)