| THE REALITY: “Mr. Israel just a few months ago had expressed hope that the Democrats could move to take back control of the House; now his party appears to be facing a challenge defending seats it already holds.” – New York Times, 09/14/11
THE DEMOCRAT SPIN: “‘It’s a very difficult district for Democrats,’ said Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, noting its Democratic margins there tend to be the second lowest of all the districts in New York City.” – Wall Street Journal, 09/14/11
50 MORE “DIFFICULT” DISTRICTS: If Debbie Wasserman Schultz is right, and this New York City seat is a difficult district for Democrats, what does that say about Democrat hopes in the more than 50 seats that are similar to or worse for them than New York 9?
NY-9 PVI = D+5
| DISTRICT |
PVI |
OLD PVI |
DEMOCRAT |
| AR-4 |
R+8 |
R+7 |
OPEN (ROSS) |
| CA-3 (10) |
D+1 |
D+11 |
JOHN GARAMENDI |
| CA-9 (11) |
D+2 |
R+1 |
OPEN (MCNERNEY) |
| CA-16 (18) |
D+2 |
D+4 |
DENNIS CARDOZA |
| CA-21 (20) |
R+4 |
D+5 |
OPEN (COSTA) |
| CA-24 (23) |
D+3 |
D+12 |
LOIS CAPPS |
| CA-46 (47) |
D+3 |
D+4 |
LORETTA SANCHEZ |
| CO-7 |
D+4 |
|
ED PERLMUTTER |
| CT-4 |
D+5 |
|
JIM HIMES |
| CT-5 |
D+2 |
|
OPEN (MURPHY) |
| GA-2 |
D+5 |
D+1 |
SANFORD BISHOP |
| GA-12 |
R+9 |
D+1 |
JOHN BARROW |
| IA-1 |
D+5 |
D+5 |
BRUCE BRALEY |
| IA-2 |
D+3 |
D+7 |
DAVE LOEBSACK |
| IL-3 |
D+5 |
D+11 |
DAN LIPINSKY |
| IL-12 |
D+3 |
D+2 |
JERRY COSTELLO |
| IN-2 |
R+7 |
R+2 |
OPEN (DONNELLY) |
| KY-3 |
D+2 |
|
JOHN YARMUTH |
| KY-6 |
R+9 |
|
BEN CHANDLER |
| MA-10 |
D+5 |
|
BILL KEATING |
| ME-2 |
D+3 |
|
MIKE MICHAUD |
| MN-1 |
R+1 |
|
TIM WALZ |
| MN-7 |
R+5 |
|
COLLIN PETERSON |
| NC-7 |
R+11 |
R+5 |
MIKE MCINTYRE |
| NC-8 |
R+12 |
R+2 |
LARRY KISSELL |
| NC-11 |
R+13 |
R+6 |
HEATH SHULER |
| NC-13 |
R+10 |
D+5 |
BRAD MILLER |
| NJ-12 |
D+5 |
|
RUSH HOLT |
| NM-1 |
D+5 |
|
OPEN (HEINRICH) |
| NY-1 |
EVEN |
|
TIM BISHOP |
| NY-2 |
D+4 |
|
STEVE ISRAEL |
| NY-23 |
R+1 |
|
BILL OWENS |
| NY-26 |
R+6 |
|
KATHY HOCHUL |
| NY-27 |
D+4 |
|
BRIAN HIGGINS |
| OK-2 |
R+14 |
R+14 |
OPEN (BOREN) |
| OR-4 |
D+3 |
D+2 |
PETER DEFAZIO |
| OR-5 |
D+1 |
D+1 |
KURT SCHRADER |
| PA-4 |
R+6 |
|
JASON ALTMIRE |
| PA-12 |
R+1 |
|
MARK CRITZ |
| PA-17 |
R+6 |
|
TIM HOLDEN |
| TN-5 |
D+3 |
|
JIM COOPER |
| TX-15 |
D+1 |
D+3 |
RUBEN HINOJOSA |
| TX-20 |
D+4 |
D+8 |
CHARLIE GONZALEZ |
| TX-28 |
D+3 |
EVEN |
HENRY CUELLAR |
| UT-2 |
R+15 |
|
JIM MATHESON |
| VA-11 |
D+2 |
|
GERRY CONNOLLY |
| WA-2 |
D+3 |
|
RICK LARSEN |
| WA-9 |
D+5 |
|
ADAM SMITH |
| WV-3 |
R+6 |
R+6 |
NICK RAHALL |
| WA-6 |
D+5 |
|
NORM DICKS |
|
|
|
|
| OPEN Seats |
|
|
|
| IL-8 |
D+5 |
|
OPEN |
| CA-41 |
D+3 |
|
OPEN |
| CA-47 |
D+5 |
|
OPEN |
| TX-34 |
D+3 |
|
OPEN |
|