The Obama Drag
America Sends a Message: Democrats Can Run, But Can’t Hide From Failed Policies
- Special election results on Tuesday evening shocked the political world as Democrats lost a sapphire-blue seat in New York City and got clobbered by double digits in a Nevada seat Democrats claimed their Mediscare demagoguery would deliver for them.
- Voters held Democrat candidates in both races responsible for the Democrats’ insistence on repeating their failed, job-destroying policies. President Obama is the embodiment of these policies, and Democrats running for office in 2012 must wonder now how having Obama at the top of the ticket will affect their campaigns.
- The Democrat “drive for 24” may have reached a dead end as Democrats must consider how many seats they will need to defend with their unpopular president on the ballot.
BACKGROUND
Special election results on Tuesday evening shocked the political world as Democrats lost a sapphire-blue seat in New York City and got clobbered by double digits in a Nevada seat Democrats claimed their Mediscare demagoguery would deliver for them:
REPUBLICAN BOB TURNER WINS UPSET IN SAPPHIRE-BLUE DEMOCRAT SEAT.(Associated Press, Accessed 9/14/2011)
DEMOCRATS HOLD 130,000 VOTER REGISTRATION ADVANTAGE IN NY-09, DISTRICT HADN’T ELECTED REPUBLICAN SINCE 1920s. (Sean Lengell, “Dems Expected to Keep Weiner’s Seat,” The Washington Times, 6/17/2011)
REPUBLICAN MARK AMODEI TROUNCES DEMOCRAT KATE MARSHALL BY DOUBLE-DIGITS. (Associated Press, Accessed 9/14/2011)
DEMS WANTED TO USE THE NEVADA RACE TO “PROVE THE WORTH” OF MEDISCARE FOR “HOUSE AND SENATE RACES DOWN THE LINE”: “…[I]t’s pretty clear the same Democrats who are going all-in on linking Republicans to Medicare as a campaign strategy are also going all-in on Marshall to win on that argument, andprove its worth for House and Senate races down the line.” (Karoun Demirjian, “Democrats boost Marshall campaign to turn congressional district blue,” Las Vegas Sun, 6/15/2011)
DCCC CHAIR STEVE ISRAEL: MEDISCARE WILL BE “OUR NO. 1 ISSUE” IN NV-02: “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is still banking on the issue it credits with bringing the party an upset victory in New York’s 26th District: Medicare. ‘For as long as Republicans continue to press to reduce or end Medicare, it will be our No. 1 issue,’ committee Chairman Steve Israel told the Sun this month.” (Karoun Demirjian, “National Issues Shape Race for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District,” Las Vegas Sun, 7/23/2011)
SO MUCH FOR DEMS’ SILVER BULLET—VOTERS TRUSTED GOP MORE ON MEDICARE: “The Amodei campaign was also ready and waiting when the Marshall campaign finally launched an ad in early August focusing on Amodei’s support for House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget plan that would overhaul Medicare. … By last week, Republican polling showed more voters trusted Amodei on the Medicare issue — thanks in part to Amodei’s mother making a cameo in an ad.”(Kyle Trygstad, “Democrats Brace for Disappointment in Nevada,” Roll Call, 9/13/2011)
Voters held Democrat candidates in both races responsible for the Democrats’ insistence on repeating their failed, job-destroying policies. President Obama is the embodiment of these policies, and Democrats running for office in 2012 must wonder now how having Obama at the top of the ticket will affect their campaigns:
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING: “THE INCREDIBLE UNPOPULARITY OF BARACK OBAMA IS DRAGGING HIS PARTY DOWN”—31% APPROVAL IN NY-09; 16% WITH INDYS, ONLY 46% APPROVAL WITH DEMOCRATS: (Tom Jensen, “Turner poised for big upset,” Public Policy Polling, 9/11/2011)
WHITE HOUSE CONCEDING THEY HAVE A PROBLEM WITH INDEPENDENTS. A BIG PROBLEM. “[Two Obama advisers] concede that the election might bring to the fore how difficult it will be for Obama to win back the trust of independents—no matter what their faith. This New York contest would seem to have implications beyond Brooklyn and Queens.” (Marc Ambinder, “White House Already Spinning Feared New York Loss,”National Journal, 9/12/2011)
NATIONAL JOURNAL’s “THEHOTLINE“: OBAMA’S UNPOPULARITY “SHOULD WORRY DEMS EVERYWHERE”: (“Obama The Albatross,” National Journal’s “The Hotline”, 9/12/2011)
STU ROTHENBERG: “THE ALBATROSS AROUND WEPRIN’S NECK IS NAMED OBAMA”: (Stuart Rothenberg, “Democrats Jump the Shark in New York Special,” Roll Call,9/11/2011)
DEMS’ MEDISCARE MESSAGE FAILED, VOTERS WANTED TO “SEND A MESSAGE” TO OBAMA: “Polling conducted by Siena College shows that jobs and the economy are the top issues of the day, and Republican calls for voters to ‘send a message’ to President Barack Obama clearly have worked far better than Democratic charges that Turner and his party want to eliminate Medicare and Social Security.” (Stuart Rothenberg, “Democrats Jump the Shark in New York Special,” Roll Call, 9/11/2011)
“COMMON SENSE” THAT OBAMA IS “A DRAG ON DOWNBALLOT DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES”: (Stuart Rothenberg, “Democrats Jump the Shark in New York Special,” Roll Call,9/11/2011)
THE NEW YORK TIMES’ NATE SILVER CALLS OUT DEM SPIN: IT’S NOT WEPRIN’S FAULT.“Lamest Dem spin in #NY09: it’s all Weprin’s fault! Really? His gaffes have been minor. …” (Tweet from Nate Silver, The New York Times, 9/13/2011)
NOTE TO DEMOCRAT INCUMBENTS: YOU CAN RUN, BUT YOU CAN’T HIDE FROM PRESIDENT OBAMA. “Weprin has awkwardly tried to distance himself from Obama, only telling the Jewish Weekly he’d ‘probably’ endorse the president’s reelection bid.” (Jessica Taylor, “Previewing the NY-09 Special Election,” National Journal‘s Hotline On Call Blog, 9/13/11)
IN NEVADA, “TERRIBLE CLIMATE FOR DEMOCRATS” AND “POOR POLLING NUMBERS” FOR OBAMA KEY TO MARSHALL’S DEFEAT: (Kyle Trygstad, “Democrats Brace for Disappointment in Nevada,” Roll Call, 9/13/2011)
“SEA CHANGE FROM THE EARLY DAYS OF [OBAMA’S] PRESIDENCY,” AS DEMS RUN AWAY FROM STIMULUS AND GOVERNMENT HEALTHCARE TAKEOVER: “It’s a sea change from the early days of his presidency, when liberal and moderate Democrats alike sought to tie themselves to the president and benefit from his popularity and charisma. Most moderate Democrats supported his stimulus and health care reform legislation that they’re now distancing themselves from.” (Alex Roarty and Beth Reinhardt, “Democrats Distancing Themselves from Obama,” National Journal, 9/1/2011)
The Democrat “drive for 24” may have reached a dead end as Democrats must consider how many seats they will need to defend with their unpopular president on the ballot:
BLOW TO RECRUITMENT AND FUNDRAISING:
ROTHENBERG: LOSS COULD AFFECT DEMS’ FUNDRAISING AND RECRUITMENT: “I’m not saying a loss would be without consequences for Democrats. It could affect fundraising and candidate recruitment.” (Stuart Rothenberg, “Democrats Jump the Shark in New York Special,” Roll Call, 9/11/2011)
CONSULTANTS URGING DEMOCRATS NOT TO RUN: “A Democratic strategist said Obama has become such a problem for down-ticket Democrats that he was wary of encouraging candidates to run next year. ‘I’m warning my clients — ‘Don’t run in 2012.’ I don’t want to see good candidates lose by 12 to 15 points because of the president,’ said the strategist.” (Cameron Joseph, “Dems’ peril in New York special election sparks fear for Nov. ’12,” The Hill, 9/13/2011)
OTHER DEMS IN BLUE SEATS FACE TROUBLE:
NY-09 DEMOGRAPHICS SIMILAR TO DCCC CHAIRMAN STEVE ISRAEL’S DISTRICT:“One other note about #NY09. DCCC Chair Steve Israel represents a nearby NYC district w/ similar demos, loss would be big embarrassment.” (Tweet from Josh Kraushaar, National Journal, 9/8/2011)
NY DEM STRATEGIST: LOSSES A “PRECURSOR TO MORE TROUBLE” FOR “MODERATE” DEMOCRATS IN 2012: “NY Dem strategist Hank Sheinkopf: ‘The Democrats will look like dummies and the DCCC will get a black eye (if Assemb. David Weprin (D) loses). It’s a precursor to more trouble in conservative Democratic districts throughout the country, and in the Senate and for the president.'” (“I’m Afraid We’re Not in NY-26 Anymore,” National Journal’s “The Hotline”, 9/12/2011)
DEM STRATEGIST: OTHER NEW YORK DEMS IN TROUBLE? ” ‘The fear is that with a Republican [Robert Turner] being so close for the Weiner seat, which is in a traditionally safe Democratic district, that Democratic marginals [in hard-fought districts] like Maurice Hinchey, Paul Tonko and Louise Slaughter, will be in trouble next year,’ a top Democratic said yesterday, referring to three upstate Congress members.” (Fredric U. Dicker, “O, What A Drag He Is for Dems,” The New York Post, 9/6/2011)
REP. PETER DEFAZIO: OBAMA COULD LOSE OREGON. “And, DeFazio said, he’s not sure Obama will do well in Oregon in 2012, even though he won nearly 57 percent of the vote there three years ago.
” ‘I believe Oregon is very much in play,’ he said. ‘I mean, we are one of the harder hit states in the union, particularly my part of the state … [P]eople are shaking their head and saying ‘I don’t know if I’d vote for him again.'” (Jennifer Epstein, “Dem Rep. DeFazio: Obama Could Lose,” Politico, 8/19/2011)
REP. HENRY WAXMAN (D-CA): DEMOCRATS LOSING SUPPORT WITH JEWISH VOTERS: “The race might point to another trend: a softening in Obama support from the Jewish community, which strongly backed him in 2008. The district has one of the largest Orthodox Jewish communities in the country. Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), a prominent Jewish congressman, said the Jewish vote is a concern for his party. … ‘But there’s no question the Jewish community is much more bipartisan than it has been in previous years. There are Jews who are trending toward the Republican Party, some of it because of their misunderstanding of Obama’s policies in the Middle East, and some of it, quite frankly, for economic reasons.'” (Cameron Joseph, “Dems’ peril in New York special election sparks fear for Nov. ’12,” The Hill, 9/13/2011)