IT’S NOT PERSONAL. IT’S JUST THEIR POLICIES

September 15, 2011

TO: REPUBLICAN MEMBERS, CANDIDATES, STAFF
FROM: NRCC POLITICAL DIRECTOR MIKE SHIELDS
DATE: SEPTEMBER 15, 2011
SUBJECT: IT’S NOT PERSONAL. IT’S JUST THEIR POLICIES

Democrat leaders have often declared this year that dozens of seats are within reach and that reinstating Pelosi as Speaker was their game plan. It’s now clear that the Democrats’ failed economic record and unpopular polices are getting in the way of their goal. With the President at record low approval ratings in swing states and even Democrat strongholds like New York City, their job-killing policies will be the defining issue going forward.

In addition, the strategy to demagogue Medicare relentlessly as a single issue has proven to be unsuccessful. The Democrats expected to reuse their playbook in elections across the country, but we have now seen in a real race that engaging and fighting on Medicare can not only neutralize the issue, but Republicans can win on the issue.

THE OBAMA DRAG

Regardless of how the Democrats try to spin it, President Obama’s failure on the economy is the defining issue in the special elections in Nevada and New York.

President Obama’s Economic Record Will be the Defining Issue for Candidates across the Country. “But make no mistake about it, the albatross around Weprin’s neck is named Obama, and Democrats who value honesty will tell you privately that the president’s 37 percent approval rating in the district is making it difficult for Weprin to win a race that in almost any other time would be a slam dunk…” (Stuart Rothenberg, “Democrats Jump the Shark in New York Special,” Roll Call, 9/13/11)

• “But even if Weprin wins narrowly, nobody with a grain of common sense would see that victory as proof that Obama is not a drag on downballot Democratic candidates.” (Stuart Rothenberg, “Democrats Jump the Shark in New York Special,” Roll Call, 9/13/11)

• Democrat Polling Firm PPP on NY-09: It’s Obama’s Fault. “If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district. Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him. It’s a given that Republicans don’t like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving.” (Tom Jensen, “Turner poised for big upset,” Public Policy Polling, 9/11/11)

Candidates Have Tried to Distance Themselves, But it Isn’t Working. “Weprin has awkwardly tried to distance himself from Obama, only telling the Jewish Weekly he’d ‘probably’ endorse the president’s reelection bid.” (Jessica Taylor, “Previewing the NY-09 Special Election,” National Journal‘s Hotline On Call Blog, 9/13/11)

DEMOCRATS’ DEMAGOGUERY DISPELLED

Democrats proudly declared that dishonest attacks on attempts to save and protect Medicare would propel Nancy Pelosi back into the Speaker’s office. Their desperate attempts to demagogue an important issue backfired. During the NV-02 race, Republicans found the formula to push back on false Medicare attacks. The keys are to communicate the facts about Republican plans to save and protect Medicare, and remind voters about the Democrats’ dangerous plans to cut the program and empower a board of unelected bureaucrats to make healthcare decisions for seniors. When tackled head on, Republicans can win this argument by holding Democrats accountable for being the only party to support a government healthcare takeover that cut $500 billion from Medicare.

The Democrats Have Been All-In on ‘Mediscare’ Tactics. “The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is still banking on the issue it credits with bringing the party an upset victory in New York’s 26th District: Medicare. ‘For as long as Republicans continue to press to reduce or end Medicare, it will be our No. 1 issue,’ committee Chairman Steve Israel told the Sun this month.” (Karoun Demirjian, “National issues shape race for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District,” Las Vegas Sun, 7/23/11)

• “DCCC Chair Steve Israel Says Ryan Budget, Medicare Will Cost Republicans the House” (Z. Byron Wolf, “DCCC Chair Steve Israel Says Ryan Budget, Medicare Will Cost Republicans the House,” ABC News’ The Note Blog, 4/15/11)

• “…[I]t’s pretty clear the same Democrats who are going all-in on linking Republicans to Medicare as a campaign strategy are also going all-in on Marshall to win on that argument, and prove its worth for House and Senate races down the line.” (Karoun Demirjian, “Democrats boost Marshall campaign to turn congressional district blue,” Las Vegas Sun, 6/15/11)

It Didn’t Work: When Tackled Head on, Republicans Can Win this Argument. “The Amodei campaign was also ready and waiting when the Marshall campaign finally launched an ad in early August focusing on Amodei’s support for House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget plan that would overhaul Medicare. … By last week, Republican polling showed more voters trusted Amodei on the Medicare issue — thanks in part to Amodei’s mother making a cameo in an ad.” (Kyle Trygstad, “Democrats Brace for Disappointment in Nevada,” Roll Call, 9/13/11)

• “‘These elections today prove that the Medicare issue doesn’t trump everything,’ said Nathan Gonzales, political editor at the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.” (Laura Litvan, “Republicans Seek Upset in New York Election for Weiner’s U.S. House Seat,” Bloomberg, 9/13/11)

DISPROVING THE MYTH OF 61 OBAMA REPUBLICANS

Rather than following through with their boasts of taking back the House by competing against 61 Obama Republicans, Democrats may have to play defense in more than 45 seats that are similar to or worse than NY-09 in party affiliation, including DCCC Chair Steve Israel’s own Long Island district. Running on the same ticket with Obama is proving to be a difficult task for many Democrats. Perhaps that is why they are having a hard time recruiting candidates in districts held by Republicans.

Democrat Strongholds Like NY-09 Aren’t Safe. “On the economy especially, Obama has become a liability, and in this district he once easily won, his unfavorable ratings in the final Siena poll were upside down at 54 percent. Weprin is hemorrhaging over a third of Democratic voters as well as losing independent voters more than two-to-one.” (Jessica Taylor, “Previewing the NY-09 Special Election,” National Journal‘s Hotline On Call Blog, 9/13/11)

Republicans Aren’t the Only Ones Who Oppose the President’s Policies. Even Democrats Are Growing Dissatisfied with Washington Democrats. “There is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That’s a really big cause for concern.” (Public Policy Polling, “Turner poised for big upset,” 9/11/11)

• “What we saw in the last round of national polling, for the first time, the actual Democratic base… saw erosion in the President’s numbers in September…All Barack Obama has to lose is to have 10% or 15% of his base stay home next November. That is a real problem, because we know one thing, that Republican turnout next November is going to be sky high. There is so much antipathy for the President. The Republican base is going to turn out. Just to see that enthusiasm eroding now in a tangible way is a real problem.” (John Heilemann on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, 9/14/11)

Formerly-Safe Constituencies Are Turning Away From the Democrats, Like Jewish Voters. “The race might point to another trend: a softening in Obama support from the Jewish community, which strongly backed him in 2008. The district has one of the largest Orthodox Jewish communities in the country. Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), a prominent Jewish congressman, said the Jewish vote is a concern for his party.” (Cameron Joseph, “Dems’ peril in New York special election sparks fear for Nov. ’12,” The Hill, 9/13/11)

Democrats Are Even Having Problems Finding Recruits To Run in Competitive Races. “‘I’m warning my clients — ‘Don’t run in 2012.’ I don’t want to see good candidates lose by 12 to 15 points because of the president,’ said the strategist.” (Cameron Joseph, “Dems’ peril in New York special election sparks fear for Nov. ’12,” The Hill, 9/13/11)

WHAT WE LEARNED

Although these were different elections on opposite sides of the country, the common theme is that for all downticket Democrats, President Obama’s record of failure in Washington will be a very big drag, especially for those who are part of the broken Washington culture. The fact that NY-09 was even competitive shows that dozens upon dozens of Congressional districts across the country are willing to hold Democrats accountable for their failed policies that have made a bad economy worse.

Our goal to add folding chairs to the House chamber to accommodate a larger majority is squarely within reach given the massive problems the Democrats in Washington find themselves responsible for.

###