Retirements make Dems’ task harder

Politico
Retirements make Dems’ task harder
By: Alex Isenstadt
October 5, 2011 04:33 AM EDT

Democrats have an unexpected enemy in their uphill, 25-seat campaign to reclaim control of the House: their own members.

Thirteen House Democrats have announced they will not seek reelection in 2012 – nearly two times the number of retiring Republicans. Most concerning for Democrats: Nearly a half-dozen of their retirees are vacating seats that will likely be competitive, meaning that the party could retreat even further.

The latest departure came Tuesday, when Rep. Jerry Costello, who represents a slightly Democratic-leaning, Southern Illinois seat, announced that he would forgo running for a 13th term. The ranks of Democratic retirees could still grow. Rep. Jim Matheson, a Utah Blue Dog, is publicly considering a run for statewide office over a reelection bid in a newly redrawn district that would favor a Republican opponent. California Rep. Dennis Cardoza has said he is unsure whether he will seek a sixth term.

For Democrats, the departures reflect the grim reality of life in the minority. Republicans faced a similar predicament after they lost the House majority in 2006, when a line of members, including then- Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, then-New Mexico Rep. Heather Wilson and then-Ohio Rep. Ralph Regula announced they would not be seeking reelection.

“It goes without saying that when you’re in the minority you’re in the wilderness,” said former Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy, a past Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman who retired at the end of the last Congress.

For Costello, a senior Democrat on the Science & Technology Committee who serves as chairman of the aviation subcommittee, the party’s minority status afforded him little power in the committee hearing rooms.

“The first couple of years of a minority give you a chance to rest, but it gets pretty old after that,” said former Tennessee Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon, a Costello acquaintance who announced his retirement in 2009. “It’s more difficult on senior members.”

Democratic officials acknowledge that the trend is unwelcome, but they insist that none of the retirements on their side has been unexpected. Several of the Democrats who decided to forgo reelection in order to seek higher office, including Connecticut Rep. Chris Murphy and Indiana Rep. Joe Donnelly, had long been known to harbor statewide ambitions. Others, like Michigan Rep. Dale Kildee and California Rep. Lynn Woolsey, have been in Congress for decades and were seen as likely to depart.

“House Republican incumbents are only renting their seats in Washington as their out-of-touch policies alienate independent voters and tea party primaries threaten their reelection chances,” said Jesse Ferguson, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “While House Republican retirements create opportunities for some Democratic pickups, strong Democratic candidates who share the values of their districts will successfully hold these Democratic open seats.”

Costello, who has established a centrist voting record during his 23-year tenure, is the latest Democratic moderate to exit the House. The ranks of Blue Dog Democrats were obliterated in 2010, with just 25 of the coalition’s 54 members returning to serve in the current Congress. This year, two additional Blue Dogs, Oklahoma Rep. Dan Boren and Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross, have announced they will not be seeking reelection in 2012.

Republicans have systematically targeted moderates for extinction. Prior to their retirements this summer, the National Republican Congressional Committee launched robocalls and radio ads targeting Boren and Ross, and aired a TV ad hammering Costello over Medicare. Last week, the NRCC launched a website titled, “Where are the Blue Dogs?” asking visitors to “Help find Washington’s Endangered Species.”

Republicans pounced on the Costello retirement, touting it as a setback for Democrats.

“You know the drive to make Nancy Pelosi speaker again is on its last wheel when Democrats in President Obama’s home state are throwing in the towel,” NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas) told POLITICO in a statement.

Kennedy acknowledged that the moderate drain was a concern for Democrats in their quest to erase the GOP’s 25-seat hold on the House.

“Clearly when you see people who have occupied the middle of the political spectrum leaving, it should be concerning for all Americans,” he said.

Redistricting has intensified the Democrats’ retirement woes. With GOP-led legislatures controlling line-drawing in states across the country, House Democrats are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable. Donnelly’s decision to run for Senate came after Republicans thrust him into a Republican-friendly, northwest Indiana seat.

“It’s a wild year with a lot of new districts and a lot of people being paired together,” said Achim Bergmann, a Washington-based Democratic consultant and veteran of House races.

There have so far been relatively few GOP retirees. Just one – Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg – occupies a seat that is regarded as competitive. But several House Republicans who occupy potentially competitive seats, including California Rep. David Dreier and Florida Rep. Bill Young, have been mentioned as possible retirees.