ICYMI: Catching the Wave

By any measure, a net gain of 63 House seats is a big win for a political party. But nearly a year after the 2010 elections, Republican leaders are still thinking about the ones that got away.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting more than 40 districts in several states, including California, Iowa, New York, and North Carolina, where it thinks the party has a chance of defeating Democrats who survived the GOP wave of 2010. The committee is placing particular emphasis on Iowa and North Carolina. In recent weeks, Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the NRCC’s recruiting chairman, has spent time on the ground in both states trying to woo top-tier candidates and hoping to capitalize on congressional-boundary shifts resulting from once-in-a-decade redistricting that will go into effect next year.

While most of the attention at this year’s Iowa State Fair was focused on the GOP presidential hopefuls sampling pork chops on a stick and pressing the flesh, Scalise was operating under the political radar on down-ballot recruitment in a quiet lounge at the Hilton Coliseum in Ames.

“We know there are seats we could have won if we had the right candidates,” said Scalise, who had abandoned his Washington business suit for a polo shirt and shorts. “The wave didn’t hit until late, so there wasn’t enough time. Now we can focus on those opportunities that we missed that time. That’s going to help us at the top of the ticket to defeat Obama. Having a strong group of candidates in the state is going to help us with the bigger picture.”

One reason the NRCC is aggressively recruiting in Iowa and North Carolina is that the GOP’s House candidates underperformed in those states compared with the rest of the ticket two years ago. Despite runaway wins by Republicans Terry Branstad and Chuck Grassley in Iowa’s gubernatorial and Senate races, respectively, the House breakdown for the state didn’t change: a 3-2 advantage for the Democrats. In North Carolina, Republicans captured the majority in the General Assembly for the first time in over a century but only one Democratic House member—Bob Etheridge—was defeated, and that was largely attributable to Etheridge’s campaign blunders.

Republicans have since caught a break from Iowa’s nonpartisan redistricting commission. GOP Rep. Tom Latham avoided a potential battle with Republican Rep. Steve King by moving into the new 3rd Congressional District to face Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell. The only serious problem for the GOP is King, whose Democratic opponent in the new 4th District is former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack, a major recruiting victory for Democrats.
Republicans believe that if they can attract strong challengers against the two remaining Democrats, they have a chance of flipping those seats. The 2nd District, whose representative is Dave Loebsack, could provide their best opportunity. Redistricting reduced Democratic strength there to just a 3-point advantage, as measured by The Cook Political Report.
At the Iowa fair, Scalise toured the grounds and the fried-food stands with John Archer, a senior lawyer for John Deere, and Dan Dolan, who owns a home-building company in Davenport that bears his name. Since then, both men have entered the 2nd District primary. Scalise also met with lawyer Ben Lange, who narrowly lost to Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley last year. The NRCC continues to court other candidates in his 1st District, including former Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate.

North Carolina is a potential political gold mine for the GOP. If the state’s redistricting plan is upheld in court, it gives Republicans a chance to knock off as many as four centrist Democrats whom they have biennially, but unsuccessfully, targeted for defeat. Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., has been floating the possibility of challenging fellow Democratic Rep. David Price in one of the solidly blue districts, which could be his best option. His current 13th District, as redrawn, is virtually unwinnable for a Democrat. That potentially open Raleigh-based district has Scalise’s attention, and he paid a visit at the end of August. He explored the region with Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., driving from Charlotte to Raleigh and using Cracker Barrel restaurants along the interstate as ad hoc offices. The pair chatted over eggs and grits with two 13th District candidates—Paul Coble, a former Raleigh mayor, and former U.S. Attorney George Holding.

Another top target is Rep. Heath Shuler in western North Carolina. Redistricting made the Democrat’s 11th District the most Republican in the state, with a 13-point GOP advantage. Shuler has already drawn several challengers, including District Attorney Jeff Hunt, ophthalmologist Dan Eichenbaum, retired Army intelligence officer Spence Campbell, and wealthy real-estate developer Mark Meadows.

To the south, the field of challengers to Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell is rapidly expanding; nearly a dozen candidates have either announced or are likely to enter the race soon. Redistricting made Kissell’s district more Republican by 10 points. Another top target for the GOP is Rep. Mike McIntyre, who is now likely to run in a district that has an 11-point Republican tilt.

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But Republicans’ upset victory in a September special election in a heavily Democratic New York City congressional district has some believing that President Obama—and the economy—could be albatrosses for Democrats in conservative-leaning states. “In the end, I think you’ve got just a better climate for conservative-minded people to run,” Scalise said. “People are much more focused on the economy and the deficit, and a Republican candidate is going to be in a much stronger position.”

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