THEY’RE DESPERATE
TO: REPUBLICAN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS AND CANDIDATES
FROM: NRCC EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR GUY HARRISON
DATE: JULY 30, 2012
SUBJECT: THEY’RE DESPERATE
With less than 100 days until the election, the Democrats have made so many mistakes that they are about to get increasingly desperate.
This is not the time to let up. The stakes are too high in this election, and we must prepare for an onslaught from Democrats in the coming months. Nancy Pelosi is now desperate, and when you’re desperate in politics you resort to extreme and outrageous tactics.
Democrats are likely to go to any length to try to undo the mistakes they’ve made up until this point. We’ll see things we’ve never before seen in politics as the majority grows further and further out of their reach. If we let up, Democrats will charge. And they have a lot of help, as public-sector labor unions are preparing an unprecedented campaign to act as a “shadow army” to support House Democrats and President Obama.
The good news is that the political environment for Democrats grows more toxic by the day. Governor Mitt Romney is running neck-and-neck with President Obama and congressional Democrats are preparing to face voters during August recess with a failed record that produced ObamaCare, 41 consecutive months of unemployment above 8.0 percent and looming tax hikes that will negatively impact job creators.
We never expected that House Democrats would become a party as hopeless in the minority as they were insulting in the Majority. And I’m honestly embarrassed for them.
Here’s what happened:
DEMOCRAT BLUNDERS
Plagued with recruitment failures, countless retirements and an unenthused base, Democrats have been on defense since they lost the majority in 2010. For example, in states like California – a state that DCCC Chairman Steve Israel predicted would be their “pathway to the majority” – Democrats suffered serious recruitment failures:
“…The major factor in lowering Democratic congressional ambitions in California, however, is the party’s operational lapses – i.e., failure to get their designated candidates past the ‘top-two’ primary and into the November runoff.” (Dan Walters, “Dan Walters: Democrats’ congressional hopes in California fade,” Sacramento Bee, 7/16/2012)
Additionally, national Democrats will hemorrhage an unpredicted sum of their resources to races that should have never even been on their list to protect in the first place:
“…the DCCC is at risk of losing four house seats in solidly democratic territory thanks to ethically tainted incumbents and weak candidates. … The not-so-fearsome foursome are Rep. John Tierney, D-Mass., Rep. David Cicilline, D-R.I, …Chris Donovan, running in CT-05, and former Rep. Alan Grayson…” (Josh Kraushaar, “What Would Rahm Do?” National Journal, 7/25/2012)
DOOMED TO RUN WITH OBAMA AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET
President Obama’s agenda—a government takeover of healthcare, sky-rocketing debt, persistently high unemployment and tax hikes on job creators—began as a toxic cocktail for House Democrats and is now an unceasing hangover with no end in sight. According to another new poll, Americans rightfully blame Obama most for the frail economy:
“McCaskill joins a growing list of Democratic senators and representatives who face tough re-elections who have said they will not attend the convention in Charlotte. …Rep. Nick Rahall, said earlier this month they will not attend the convention. …Rep. Kathy Hochul and Rep. Bill Owens – also said they would not attend. Pennsylvania Rep. Mark Critz also said he would skip September’s event. …Utah Rep. Jim Matheson both confirmed they would not attend the Democratic convention.” (Ted Barrett & Paul Steinhauser, “McCaskill to skip Democratic convention,” CNN, 6/26/2012)
THEIR MATH JUST DOESN’T ADD UP
The Cook Political Report’s June analysis found Nancy Pelosi’s “Drive to 25” initiative to be a delusion:
“A glance at our latest House ratings shows the steepness of Democrats’ challenge. Republicans start out with 30 more Solid seats than Democrats, 187 to 157. Even if Democrats swept the Likely and Lean Democratic columns as well as all 24 Toss Ups, they would still need to win 13 of 18 seats in Lean Republican to win a majority. Tellingly, if Toss Ups were to be divided equally between the parties and all other races fell as expected, Democrats would score a net gain of only a single seat.” (“June House Outlook: Minimal Partisan Change,” Cook Political Report, 6/14/2012)
As a result Democrats are grasping at straws and are desperately trying to find a new route to the majority by talking about seats that no one believes are in play:
“’I think we could pick up four or five in Illinois, I think we could pick up four or five in California, pick up a couple, three, in New York, pick up one in Maryland. We’re going to pick up two in Texas,’ [said Steny Hoyer.]” (Richard Dunham, “Steny Hoyer says Democrats could pick up two Texas congressional seats,” Houston Chronicle, 7/25/2012)
STAYING ON OFFENSE
House Republicans are focused on defending the pro-growth, fiscally responsible agenda supported by the American people. That means holding big-government Democrats accountable for out-of-control spending, voting to protect ObamaCare 33 times, stifling American energy independence and increasing taxes on small business job creators.
Fielding top-tier candidates that are in tune with their constituents’ needs has always been a priority for us. Across the nation, our strong recruitment efforts have put long-time Democrat seats in play. Additionally, with a massive cash on hand advantage of nearly $42 million to the DCCC’s $33.2 million, Republicans will be able to not only defend our incumbents, but aggressively go after vulnerable Democrat seats:
“The prospect of making Democratic veterans fight for their seats, if not lose them, offers House Republicans a chance to show some political muscle…The NRCC, the House Republicans’ campaign arm, has already reserved ad time targeting some longtime House Democrats…” (Henry C. Jackson, “Veteran House Dems gear up for competitive races,” Associated Press, 7/10/2012)
What does this all mean? It means we can’t take anything for granted. Nancy Pelosi’s kitchen sink is about to be hurled from the streets of San Francisco to the districts of every Republican candidate who dares to threaten her return to the Speaker’s chair. Get ready to hit back. You know why it’s important.