state of play in the house with a side of liberal madness
Good Morning – Two of the most respected political analysts are out with columns today on the state of play in the 2014 House midterm elections. Please find the key takeaways below. Also please check out this new tournament we’ve launched today – Liberal Madness, which lets you fill out a bracket with 32 Democratic pols (including 13 House members).
Roll Call: Rothenberg: Is the House in Play? A District-by-District Assessment
“Democrats need to net 17 seats next year to reach a 218-seat majority in the House. Democratic operatives identify 30 House Republicans who won by less than 10 points last year and assert that the margin makes them vulnerable in 2014. But the GOP incumbents who won by less than 10 points didn’t start, or end, at the same place last cycle. For example, Republican Rep. Tom Latham of Iowa defeated another incumbent, Democrat Leonard L. Boswell, running in territory very different from the Republican’s district last decade. Because of that, Latham’s 8-point victory — in a district that President Barack Obama won by more than 4 points — is a sign of strength, not vulnerability….
“And while Democrats have opportunities, they also have seats that will need defending.
“At least 11 Democratic incumbents start off at risk: Arizona’s Ann Kirkpatrick and Ron Barber, California’s Raul Ruiz, Florida’s Patrick Murphy and Joe Garcia, Georgia’s John Barrow, Massachusetts’ John F. Tierney, New Hampshire’s Carol Shea-Porter, North Carolina’s Mike McIntyre, Texas’ Pete Gallego and Utah’s Jim Matheson. Seven of these Democrats sit in Romney districts, and strong GOP recruiting in a handful of additional districts could make more Democrat-held seats (Minnesota Rep. Collin C. Peterson’s is a good example) vulnerable. At this point in the cycle, Democrats probably need to put at least another two dozen additional districts into play — in addition to the ones I have cited above — and hold most of their own vulnerable seats to have a chance of netting 17 seats in the midterm elections. It’s a very tall order.”
Wall Street Journal: Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik: The Early Line on the 2014 Midterms
“Obama’s greatest setback to date has been the 2010 midterm elections. Gains that Republicans scored in the House and Senate still circumscribe his agenda. It is no surprise, then, that the Obama White House wants to achieve something no other president has ever done: Retake full control of Congress in a midterm… Yet as next year’s battle for Congress begins to intensify, the odds favor the Republicans holding the House and getting yet another shot at the Senate.”