Polling Memo: Is Obama Having Base Problems?

Obama & His Base: Part 1

Recent polling from CNN/ORC International has shown a steep drop in ratings for President Obama in the aftermath of scandals surrounding the Administration.  In just one month, Obama’s approval rating took an 8 point hit, going from 53-45 approve in May to 45-54 disapprove in June. A key component noted in the data was that “the overall decline in [the President’s] approval rating was partially fueled by a plunge in support from younger Americans, a huge base of Obama’s support.”¹

This stark movement among 18-34 year olds is clearly seen in CNN’s series of questions which ask respondents to think about particular characteristics and qualities and whether or not they apply to President Obama.

In May, 67% of 18-34 year olds said Obama was honest and trustworthy.  Today, one month later, only 49% say the same.  That’s an 18 point drop.  In fact, a full 50% of young Americans now say these characteristics do NOT apply to Obama.

In terms of being able to manage the government effectively, in May, 61% of young Americans said this applied to Obama.  Fast forward a month and 18-34 year olds are split at 50% with half saying this does apply to Obama.  They’re then asked whether Obama “generally agrees with your views on the size and power of the government.”  Right now, Obama sits upside-down 45-53 on this question with the majority of 18-34 year olds saying he does not.  This number was 60-39 back in May.  That’s a net negative swing of 29 points.

Lastly, 18-34 year olds are asked if the following statement applies to President Obama: “Is not a typical politician.” In May, Obama sat comfortably at +18 percent, with 58% of 18-34 year olds believing the President is not a typical politician.  Today, that opinion has changed as 18-34 year olds are evenly divided at 49%.

DATE: Conducted 5/17-18/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 923 Adult Americans; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/05/20/rel6b-1.pdf

POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN

DATE: Conducted 5/11-13/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,014 Adult Americans; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/06/17/rel7a.pdf

¹ http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/17/politics/obama-poll-decline/index.html