NRCC Memo: Arkansas Primary Results

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: NRCC Political and NRCC Communications

DATE: May 20, 2014

SUBJECT: Arkansas Primary Results

Arkansas Democrats have had a rough go over the past few election cycles due to the unpopularity of President Obama’s policies. This election cycle will be no different for Democrats running and they will feel the negative side effects of running as an Obama/Pelosi Democrat in today’s current political environment.

President Obama’s approval ratings are continuing to drop nationwide leaving Arkansas looking like a long-lost dream for Washington Democrats. Whether it’s the toxicity of Obamacare, or the over-bearing regulations and government overreach infringing on American families, the policies coming out of the Democratic run Washington, D.C. is becoming a serious problem for Southern Democrats.

AR-02: French Hill, R vs. Pat Hays, D

French Hill is one of the strongest Republican recruits of the 2014 cycle. As a former White House aide under President George H.W. Bush and a leading successful businessman in the Little Rock area, Hill has the campaign infrastructure, resources and political knowledge to run a strong and effective campaign.

Democrats will undoubtedly attempt to put the 2^nd District race in play this cycle but when you weigh the national dissatisfaction with the Democrat Party as well as the top of the ticket draw for Republicans in the 2^nd, this seat looks more and more secure in the GOP’s hands.

Former North Little Rock Mayor Pat Hays comes into this race at a heavy disadvantage. Not only has Hays supported the toxic and political career ending Obamacare, but he will also need to introduce himself to the majority of the district who is unfamiliar with the North Little Rock Mayor. North Little Rock only makes up 9% of the 2^nd District. When you couple in the lack of name ID of Hays as well as Congressman Tim Griffin’s name appearing at the top of the ticket as Lt. Governor, this seat is looking further out of the Democrats’ reach.

Geography: PVI: R+08; Romney 54.75%; Obama 42.91%. The 2^nd District centers on the state Capitol, Little Rock, and includes the following counties: Van Buren, Conway, Faulkner, White, Yell, Perry, Pulaski and Saline. Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Report rate it as Lean Republican.  

AR-04: Bruce Westerman, R v. James Lee Witt, D

Arkansas’ 4^th Congressional District is seen as the safest district in the state being challenged by a Democrat this election cycle. The 4^th District has strongly voted Republican in the last 3 Presidential elections and has elected current Member Tom Cotton by a large margin in 2012.

Bruce Westerman has been a strong defender of conservative values and will successfully defeat James Lee Witt in November. While Democrats are banking on Witt’s Clinton ties, Westerman will also receive a boost at the polls thanks to Tom Cotton’s name appearing at the top of the ballot. The sheer makeup of the 4^th District as well as the national frustration with Democrats will impede his ability to gain traction with the soft Republican voters he will need to stay above water.

Geography: PVI: R+15; Romney 61.83%; Obama 35.88%. The 4^th District encompasses a large portion of Arkansas that stretches from the Northwest region to a majority of the southern portion of the state. The Cook Political Report rates this race as Likely Republican while the Rothenberg Report rates this race as Safe Republican.

STATEWIDE ROUNDUP

The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Arkansas. These results are unofficial and incomplete.