NRCC Memo: Florida Primary Results

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC POLITICAL AND NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: AUGUST 26, 2014
SUBJECT: FLORIDA PRIMARY RESULTS

As a swing state in presidential elections, Florida is perpetually in the spotlight for both parties and this year is once again no exception. What started out as a busy year for congressional races only gained more attention with the special election held for the 13^th District seat after the unfortunate passing of Congressman Bill Young.

With millions being spent by both parties, the 13^th District special election became the epicenter for reading the tea leaves in regards to the 2014 fall elections. Republican David Jolly was victorious and with a new ground game initiated by national Republicans, Democrats were left scratching their heads as to how they lost a district Obama carried twice.

After the huge loss of the special election, Democrats locally and nationally faced giant embarrassments when their recruit to run against Jolly in the general election this fall failed to qualify as a Democrat on the ballot and then, a week later, decided against running. This left one of the most competitive swing districts in the state without a Democrat challenger heading into the fall elections and was seen as a huge failure for Democrats.

The less than stellar political operation highlighted in the 13^th District race will set the tone for Democrats in the Sunshine State this fall. When you combine the national climate towards Democrats thanks to President Obama’s toxic agenda with the lackluster top of the ticket draw of Charlie Crist, Republicans are in a place to expand the GOP majority in November.

INCUMBENTS

FL-02: Rep. Steve Southerland, R vs. Gwen Graham, D

The Democrats know they have two simple goals in this race – don’t talk about Gwen’s liberal political agenda and mention Graham’s father’s name as often as possible. Up until this week Gwen has been able to fly under the radar and not address her previous work for both John Kerry and Howard Dean. This week however, Graham was caught on camera agreeing that ObamaCare was a good thing and that it won’t be an issue this November. This comes after Gwen announced that she would not repeal the dysfunctional law if elected. This message will hurt Graham in a district that Romney won 52% to Obama’s 47% and is contradictory of every effort by her political team to present her as a moderate Republican candidate.

On the other hand, Steve Southerland has put himself in a strong position to win reelection. With large fundraising totals and exceptional constituent services, even in his short time in office, Southerland has earned the reputation of being a leader for North Florida families.

Geography: PVI R+6, Romney 52.4% – Obama 46.5%. This district encompasses the central panhandle including the cities of Tallahassee and Panama City. The Cook Political Report rates this race as a Republican Toss-Up. The Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as a Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.

FL-18: Carl Domino, R vs. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D

Congressman Patrick Murphy has been a top-target of both local and national Republicans since being elected in 2012. While Murphy has been forced to walk the line with his voting record, Florida families won’t be able to overlook his vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House and his vote to keep ObamaCare the law of the land.

With the primary election of Carl Domino, Republicans go into the final months of the campaign with a strong competitor who will force Murphy to spend his millions and will ultimately flip the seat back into the GOP’s hands.

Geography: PVI R+3, Romney 51.7% – Obama 47.6%. This district includes Port St. Lucie and Jupiter of Florida’s Treasure Coast. The Cook Political Report rates this race as Lean Democrat. The Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as Democrat Favored.

FL-26: Carlos Curbelo, R vs. Joe Garcia, D

Florida’s 26^th District is one of the best pickup opportunities for Republicans this fall. While this district voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama in 2012, Joe Garcia’s dismal first year in office solidified this race as one to watch.

Starting early into his first term, Garcia was mired in scandal thanks to his absentee voter fraud plot that caused two of his staffers, one who was his longtime political aide and best friend, to lose their jobs. The former longtime political aide who also served as Garcia’s chief of staff was also sent to jail for 90 days thanks to the bone-headed voter fraud plot. Not only is Garcia still under investigation for the voter fraud scheme, but his 2010 campaign is also under federal investigation thanks to a possible straw candidate plot.

Voters of South Florida are sick and tired of the corrupt politics of days past and Garcia’s time is about to expire. Carlos Curbelo is a fresh-faced young businessman who has served his community on the school board and offers voters a clear contrast against Garcia’s ethically challenged ways. Curbelo has been on the air running TV ads and has worked tirelessly on the campaign trail which makes this seat a great pickup opportunity for the GOP.

National Democrats should be worried that a seat they need to keep, which Obama won by a large margin, is up for grabs thanks to the ill-advised wrong doings of their candidate.

Geography: PVI R+1, Obama 53.1% – Romney 46.4%.This district includes Miami, the Everglades, and the Keys. The Cook Political Report rates this race as a Democrat Toss-Up. The Rothenberg Political Report rates this races as Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat.

STATEWIDE ROUNDUP

The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Florida. These results are unofficial and incomplete.

*Indicates Winner determined by AP