FACTCHECK: The Next Time Democrats Try To Set Expectations…

October 28, 2014

Obama Saw Democrat House As Last Hope; In July Pelosi Predicted 25 Seat Win

We’re a week from Election Day and in the deluge of polls, debates, and last minute ads, it can be easy to forget where we were just months ago.

As Democrats attempt to play down expectations, keep in mind that last year President Obama saw a Democrat-controlled House as the last hope of saving a listless presidency. In fact, the first calls he made after his 2012 victory speech were to Nancy Pelosi and DCCC Chair Steve Israel.

Just 3 months ago, as President Obama’s approval ratings were falling and numerous scandals beset the White House, Nancy Pelosi confidently predicted a 25 seat pickup in the House.

President Obama and national Democrats promised the world but they couldn’t deliver. They’re a victim of their own sky-high expectations.

All the while, Republicans have plunged headfirst into Obama districts and stayed on offense, while still facing competitive challenges in a slew of Republican-controlled open seats.

wapo quote

President Obama Realized That A Democrat-Controlled House In 2014 Was “Crucial” To Reviving His Presidency:

Washington Post: “Stymied By A GOP House, Obama Looks Ahead To 2014 To Cement His Legacy” (Scott Wilson and Philip Rucker, “Stymied by a GOP House, Obama looks ahead to 2014 to cement his legacy,” The Washington Post, 3/2/13)

Obama Sees Winning Back The House As “Crucial” To His Second Term Priorities. “Obama, fresh off his November reelection, began almost at once executing plans to win back the House in 2014, which he and his advisers believe will be crucial to the outcome of his second term and to his legacy as president. He is doing so by trying to articulate for the American electorate his own feelings — an exasperation with an opposition party that blocks even the most politically popular elements of his agenda.” (Scott Wilson and Philip Rucker, “Stymied by a GOP House, Obama looks ahead to 2014 to cement his legacy,” The Washington Post, 3/2/13)

Immediately After Delivering His Victory Speech On Election Night 2012, Obama Called DCCC Chair Steve Israel And Nancy Pelosi. “After delivering his election victory speech in November, Obama walked off the Chicago stage and made two phone calls related to his political plans — one to Israel and one to Rep. Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), the last Democratic House speaker. Israel said Obama told him ‘how focused he would be on winning a House majority for the Democrats,’ many of whom complained that the president did not do enough during his first term to help members on the Hill.” (Scott Wilson and Philip Rucker, “Stymied by a GOP House, Obama looks ahead to 2014 to cement his legacy,” The Washington Post, 3/2/13)

Obama Advisers See Winning The House As One Of Three Viable Options For Reviving His Presidency. “The only way to get big things done in a divided Congress is to control everything, like Obama did for his first two years. Democrats would need to net 17 House seats, a near impossibility for an incumbent president’s party in the so-called six-year itch year. The forecast from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball project at the University of Virginia Center for Politics lists only seven of the nation’s 435 House districts as true tossups. The analysis points to an amazing stat that explains a lot about Capitol Hill gridlock: Just 26 House members — 17 Democrats and nine Republicans — represent districts won by the other party’ presidential candidate, and many of the members in those crossover districts are not particularly vulnerable.” (Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, “Obama, Boxed In,” Politico, 4/18/13)

At The 2013 House Democratic Retreat, President Obama Predicted Nancy Pelosi Would Be Speaker Again “Pretty Soon.” (com, Accessed On 4/2/13)

MSNBC’s Chris Jansing: Obama Has Been “Quietly Mapping A Strategy” To Take Back The House In 2014—“The Path To A Successful Second-Term Agenda.” (YouTube, Accessed On 4/19/13)

Wolf Blitzer Of CNN Said President Obama Was “Obsessed” With Taking Back The House. (YouTube, Accessed On 4/19/13)

His Goal Is To Win Back The House In The Final Two Years And Push Through Liberal Legislation. “His apparent two-year strategy is to work hard to help Democrats win back control of the House of Representatives and use his final two years to build the liberal legacy he outlined in his address — a legacy that will be near-impossible to achieve as long as the GOP controls the House.” (Richard Benedetto, “Obama’s Eyes Are on 2014 — and Then His Legacy,” Real Clear Politics, 1/28/13)

Winning The House In 2014 Would Take Obama From A “Lame Duck” To A “Soaring Eagle.” “But with Democrats in charge of both chambers of Congress in 2015-16, Obama would be transformed from a lame duck to a soaring eagle. He could slam through much of the legislation he broadly outlined in his speech, and will sketch in more detail in his State of the Union message on Feb. 12: – Stem climate change. – Control guns. – Reduce dependence on oil and coal, stymie natural gas fracking and develop alternative cleaner energy sources. – Expand gay and women’s rights. – Liberalize immigration laws. – Expand government spending for infrastructure, education, health care and aid to the poor. – Raise taxes further on the wealthy. – Minimize reforms of Medicare and Social Security.” (Richard Benedetto, “Obama’s Eyes Are on 2014 — and Then His Legacy,” Real Clear Politics, 1/28/13)

DCCC Chairman Steve Israel Repeatedly Said Democrats Could Take Back The House:

Israel In May 2013: “I Think We Have A Good Chance At Winning The House” (Susan Page, “Steve Israel: ‘Good Chance At Winning The House,” USA Today, 5/24/13)

Israel On Democrat Incumbents: “Not Losing Sleep Over Our Defense At All.” (Sean Sullivan, “Rep. Steve Israel: 2014 Elections Won’t Be Syria Referendum,” The Washington Post, 9/10/13)

Israel Began Calling Potential Recruits Within Minutes Of Losing The House In 2012. “To that end, Israel — who got his start at the DCCC as a recruiter under former chairmen Rahm Emanuel and Chris Van Hollen — began calling some potential 2014 recruits on election night in 2012, within minutes of learning that they had lost.” (Scott Bland, “DCCC’s 2014 Effort Begins With Member-Driven Recruiting Push,” National Journal, 3/15/13)

A February 2013 Memo Stated Israel And The DCCC Believes They Can Take Back The House In 2014. “Israel’s memo, sent to National Journal by a Democratic aide, boiled down to one theme: Republicans and their tea party allies are deeply unpopular with the public, which means that Democrats — with President Obama’s help — should be able to overcome a congressional map that leans red. Democrats, who won a net of eight seats last year, need to win another 17 more to retake the majority.” (Alex Roarty, “Why Democrats Think They Can Retake the House in 2014,” National Journal, 2/15/13)

In July, Nancy Pelosi Predicted Democrats Would Win 25 Seats And Take Back The House:

The Washington Post Headline: “Nancy Pelosi’s Goal Is To Win 25 Seats. Here’s How She Thinks It Can Happen” (Ed O’Keefe, “Nancy Pelosi’s Goal Is To Win 25 Seats. Here’s How She Thinks It Can Happen,” The Washington Post, 7/16/14)

Pelosi Said Democrats Could Win The House In 2014. “‘We’re playing in about 70 districts. Twenty-five is my goal – I would like that. Seventeen is our must. I think we win 17 of those seats. We won 16 in the last election, but we lost eight. As [DCCC Chairman Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.)] says, you don’t add by subtracting. Nobody knows. Nobody knows.’” (Ed O’Keefe, “Nancy Pelosi’s Goal Is To Win 25 Seats. Here’s How She Thinks It Can Happen,” The Washington Post, 7/16/14)