June 8, 2016

DATE: JUNE 8, 2016


Strong Republican incumbents and residual fallout from Democratic primaries are the common themes in Iowa congressional races this year. Both Rod Blum and David Young have shown that they know how to run strong campaigns by breezing through their respective primaries. On the other side of the aisle, Democrats turned their fire on one another in both the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts and gave GOP incumbents a significant head start in their campaigns for the fall.

IA-01: Rod Blum, R vs. Monica Vernon, D

Rod Blum, with more than $1,200,000 in cash on hand as of the pre-primary FEC filing, starts the general election in a solid position after months of infighting between Democrats Monica Vernon and Pat Murphy. Blum has worked hard to cut across the partisan divide, introducing multiple congressional perks reform bills that include banning members from using taxpayer funds to fly first class. Conversely, Vernon and Murphy spent months battling over who could be the most progressive Democrat, potentially alienating the very same crossover voters who came out for Blum in 2014. Contrasting with Vernon’s liberal loyalties and sparse bank account, Blum’s significant cash on hand advantage and reform minded approach provide a compelling narrative entering the general election campaign.

Overview: PVI: D+5; Obama 56.19%; the Cook Political Report rates this race as “Toss Up” and the Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as “Toss Up/Tilt Democrat.”   

IA-03: David Young, R vs. Jim Mowrer, D

David Young emerged from his primary in a strong position, garnering 85% of the vote and sporting more than $1 million in cash on hand. IA-03 Democrats spent more than $500,000 on the air during the primary attacking one another, leaving their nominee Jim Mowrer bruised and broke, with less than $100,000 in the bank. Young has made it a priority to be out and about in his district, keeping his campaign promise of making monthly visits to every county he represents. Young’s major cash advantage, tireless efforts on the ground, and bipartisan record have paid off in spades and leave him in an excellent position looking ahead to November. In contrast, Mowrer’s partisan background as an Obama Administration appointee and Vice-Chair of the Iowa Democratic Party ensure that he will be rightly seen as little more than the cookie-cutter liberal that he is.

Overview: PVI: EVEN; Obama 51.45%; the Cook Political Report rates this race as “Toss Up” and the Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as “Pure Toss Up.”   


The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Iowa.

*Indicates Winner determined by AP

IA-01 – GOP Primary    

436 of 436 Precincts Reporting (100%)

Rod Blum*                                                          Uncontested

IA-01 – DEM Primary   

436 of 436 Precincts Reporting (100%)

Monica Vernon*                                              68%

Pat Murphy                                                        32%

IA-03 – GOP Primary    

392 of 392 Precincts Reporting (100%)

David Young*                                                    85%

Joe Grandanette                                              15%

IA-03 – DEM Primary   

392 of 392 Precincts Reporting (100%)

Jim Mowrer*                                                     50%

Mike Sherzan                                                    36%

Desmund Adams                                             14%